The D1 structure remains bearish, while mixed momentum and a bearish H4 tactical reading leave room for consolidation before the next directional test.
EUR/JPY Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
EUR/JPY retains a bearish weekly bias as D1 structure and H4 conditions lean lower, although mixed D1 momentum leaves room for consolidation around the supplied levels.
The weekly thesis is controlled by the bearish D1 structure. The 175.653 close is below the D1 EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, while the D1 RSI is below 50 and the D1 MACD remains negative. This places the market below the main trend references and below primary resistance at 177.38995.
The case is not one-directional in every indicator: D1 MACD is above its signal and its histogram is positive, while the close sequence is mixed. H4 restores some directional alignment because its MACD is below its signal, its histogram is negative, and its close is below the H4 EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle. A move through the supplied levels would determine whether downside pressure develops or consolidation persists.
- Bullish targets
-
- T1178.324
- T2178.93343
- Bearish targets
-
- T1173.90081 (projected)
- T2172.71762 (projected)
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 177.50827.
Selected key events
- Main Refinancing Rate29 Oct 2026 16:15 GMT+3High
- Monetary Policy Statement29 Oct 2026 16:15 GMT+3High
- ECB Press Conference29 Oct 2026 16:45 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 175.653 as of 24 Oct 2026 02:50 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 175.653 as of 23 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 175.084 |
| Secondary support | — |
| Primary resistance | 177.390 |
| Bullish targets | 178.324, 178.93343 |
| Bearish targets | 173.90081 (projected), 172.71762 (projected) |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 177.508 — One completed D1 close above 177.508 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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EUR/JPY Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to EUR/JPY during 24–31 October 2026 include Main Refinancing Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, ECB Press Conference. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Refinancing Rate | 29 Oct 2026 16:15 GMT+3 | High | 2.65% | 2.65% |
| Monetary Policy Statement | 29 Oct 2026 16:15 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| ECB Press Conference | 29 Oct 2026 16:45 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| Tokyo Core CPI y/y | 30 Oct 2026 02:30 GMT+3 | Medium | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| BOJ Policy Rate | 30 Oct 2026 (Tentative) | High | <1.25% | <1.25% |
Current EUR/JPY Price and Weekly Market Context
D1 controls the weekly thesis: the trend state is bearish, the close sequence is mixed, and the 175.653 close is below the D1 EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle. Momentum is mixed because D1 MACD is above its signal and the histogram is positive even though MACD is negative and RSI is below 50. H4 is tactically bearish, with its close below the H4 EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle and H4 MACD below its signal. This supports downside pressure but does not replace the D1 framework. Stable volatility suggests a measured environment rather than a directional signal by itself.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbearishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentummixedRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is EUR/JPY Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The bearish scenario has the strongest structural support because D1 trend and price position are aligned below key moving-average and Bollinger references, with H4 also bearish. The base scenario is consolidation between the supplied support and resistance areas while mixed D1 momentum prevents immediate follow-through. The bullish scenario requires a stronger recovery through the upper supplied boundary and would represent a countertrend development against the controlling D1 structure.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A bullish alternative would gain D1 structural relevance after one completed D1 close above 177.50827, the supplied upper boundary. That would place greater weight on the D1 MACD position above its signal and positive histogram, while challenging the current bearish price structure.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 would add tactical support to the bullish alternative if its close moved above the supplied H4 resistance at 176.203 and its current bearish positioning above the H4 support at 175.532 changed accordingly. This would be tactical confirmation only; D1 would remain the controlling timeframe.
- Targets
- 178.324, 178.93343
- Scenario failure condition
- The bullish alternative would weaken if price remains below 177.50827 on completed D1 observations and H4 continues below its EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- The consolidation scenario would be supported while the D1 close sequence remains mixed and price stays between the supplied support and resistance framework without a completed D1 close through the formal upper or lower boundary.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 would support a neutral reading if its bearish indicators stop extending and price continues to hold above H4 support at 175.532 while remaining below H4 resistance at 176.203. That would signal hesitation rather than a new weekly direction.
- Targets
- The base scenario is a two-sided test of the supplied 175.084 support and 177.38995 primary resistance, with 176.203 and 175.532 providing H4 tactical context. No additional target is assigned to the consolidation case.
- Scenario failure condition
- The consolidation scenario would weaken if a completed D1 close moves below 174.35149 or above 177.50827, because either development would materially change the existing weekly boundary structure.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- The bearish case would gain structural support if D1 remains below primary resistance at 177.38995 and weakness develops through primary support at 175.084. The lower projected ATR-based reference targets are 173.90081 and 172.71762.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 already provides tactical downside alignment through a close below its EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle, with H4 MACD below its signal and a negative histogram. A break below H4 support at 175.532 would add tactical pressure to the D1 bearish framework.
- Targets
- 173.90081 (projected), 172.71762 (projected)
- Scenario failure condition
- The bearish scenario would weaken if a completed D1 close rises above 177.50827, or if H4 recovers above its supplied resistance at 176.203 and loses its current downside alignment.
EUR/JPY D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The 175.653 D1 close is below the D1 EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, and it is also below the supplied D1 resistance structure while remaining above primary support at 175.084. The close sequence is mixed, so the broader bearish positioning is accompanied by evidence of uneven short-term development rather than a uniformly persistent move.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 reinforces the D1 downside framework: its 175.653 close is below the H4 EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle, H4 RSI is below 50, and H4 MACD is below its signal with a negative histogram. The close remains above H4 support at 175.532 and below H4 resistance at 176.203, leaving a defined tactical tension within the larger bearish structure.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
The technical picture is bearish at the D1 and H4 trend levels, while momentum is mixed on D1. The D1 close is below the EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle; H4 shows the same below-reference positioning against its EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle. Stable volatility describes the trading environment but does not determine direction.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 24 October 2026.
- RSI31.18Neutral
- MACDAbove signalBullish
- Bollinger BandsOutside bandBelow lower band
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR118.3 pipsStable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 35.69
D1 and H4 RSI are both below 50, which is consistent with subdued momentum across both timeframes. The D1 reading is part of a mixed momentum picture because MACD positioning is less uniformly bearish, while H4 RSI aligns with its bearish tactical state.
- D1 RSI
- 31.18
- H4 RSI
- 35.69
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bullish momentum
D1 MACD remains negative but is above its signal, with a positive histogram, creating a counterweight to the bearish D1 trend. H4 MACD is negative and below its signal with a negative histogram, so the lower timeframe currently supplies the clearer downside momentum signal.
- MACD
- -0.939235
- Signal
- -0.96726
- Histogram
- 0.028024
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Below lower band
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 and H4 closes are both below their respective Bollinger middle references, supporting the view that price remains below central trend measures on both timeframes. Stable volatility means the bands describe the current environment without independently establishing direction.
- Position in band
- 19.3 pips below lower
- Band width
- 308.7 pips (1.74%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling179.512Price is 385.9 pips below (-2.15%)
- 200 SMA falling183.468Price is 781.5 pips below (-4.26%)
The D1 close is below the EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, while the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling. H4 is also below its EMA20 and EMA50. This moving-average alignment is the strongest structural support for the bearish weekly thesis, although the mixed D1 close sequence limits the strength of any immediate continuation claim.
- D1 close
- 175.653
- 50 EMA
- 179.512
- 200 SMA
- 183.468
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Stable volatility frames the setup as one in which level tests may develop without volatility itself providing directional evidence. The bearish target references are ATR-based projections identified in the data, so they should be treated as projected reference points rather than structural support.
- D1 ATR
- 1.18319 (0.67%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.50425 (0.29%)
Technical conclusion: D1 structure remains the decisive evidence: the close is below the principal moving-average and Bollinger references, the trend state is bearish, and the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling. H4 adds tactical downside alignment, but mixed D1 momentum and a mixed close sequence prevent a certainty claim. The next relevant framework is primary support at 175.084, primary resistance at 177.38995, and the formal lower boundary at 174.35149.
View all live EUR/JPY oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
EUR/JPY Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 175.084 | Primary support | D1 | The 175.653 D1 close is above this supplied support, so it is the nearest listed D1 downside reference within the current structure. |
| 175.532 | H4 support | H4 | The H4 close is above this tactical support, making it an early warning level for whether current H4 downside pressure is extending. |
| 176.203 | H4 resistance | H4 | The H4 close is below this resistance, so recovery through it would challenge the current tactical bearish alignment without independently changing the D1 thesis. |
| 177.38995 | Primary resistance | D1 | This level is the D1 Bollinger middle and primary resistance, while the D1 close is below it. |
| 178.324 | Secondary resistance | D1 | This supplied resistance is also the bullish structural target reference and would represent a further recovery level above primary resistance. |
| 178.93343 | Additional resistance | D1 | This is the supplied D1 upper Bollinger value and the second bullish structural target reference. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for EUR/JPY This Week
Selected events may increase EUR/JPY volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Refinancing Rate | 29 Oct 2026 16:15 GMT+3 | High | 2.65% | 2.65% |
| Monetary Policy Statement | 29 Oct 2026 16:15 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| ECB Press Conference | 29 Oct 2026 16:45 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| BOJ Policy Rate | 30 Oct 2026 (Tentative) | High | <1.25% | <1.25% |
| Monetary Policy Statement | 30 Oct 2026 (Tentative) | High | — | — |
Showing 5 of 10 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 24 Oct 2026 16:52 GMT+3. View the complete EUR/JPY economic calendar.
EUR/JPY Outlook for 24–31 October 2026
EUR/JPY enters 24–31 October 2026 with a bearish D1 structure and a bearish H4 tactical backdrop. The 175.653 close is below the key D1 and H4 trend references, while falling D1 EMA50 and SMA200 slopes strengthen the structural case. Primary support at 175.084 is the next listed downside reference, with 173.90081 and 172.71762 serving as projected ATR-based bearish targets if downside development extends.
The bearish view remains conditional because D1 momentum is mixed: MACD is above its signal and the histogram is positive, while the close sequence is mixed. Stable volatility does not resolve that tension, and the ECB and BOJ schedules may increase repricing risk. A completed D1 close below 174.35149 would formally remove the lower boundary supporting the selected bearish framework.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- Mixed D1 momentum: D1 MACD is above its signal and the histogram is positive even though MACD is negative, which reduces the uniformity of the bearish momentum case.
- Timeframe tension: H4 is bearish and supports the weekly direction, but the D1 close sequence is mixed, leaving room for delayed or uneven development.
- Event concentration: High-impact ECB events on 29 Oct 2026 and tentative high-impact BOJ events on 30 Oct 2026 may produce volatility or repricing around the supplied levels.
- Stable volatility: Stable volatility may allow the market to consolidate rather than immediately extend the D1 trend, so volatility conditions do not independently confirm the bearish direction.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 177.50827. One completed D1 close below 174.35149 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
EUR/JPY Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is EUR/JPY bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is Bearish. D1 price structure is below its principal moving-average and Bollinger references, while H4 tactical conditions also lean lower.
What scenario would strengthen for EUR/JPY this week?
The primary bearish scenario would become more relevant if D1 weakness persists below the supplied resistance structure and H4 continues to provide downside confirmation. A neutral scenario remains possible because D1 momentum is mixed and the close sequence is mixed.
What are the key EUR/JPY support and resistance levels?
Primary support is 175.084 and primary resistance is 177.38995, with secondary resistance at 178.324. The bearish projected ATR-based reference targets are 173.90081 and 172.71762.
What would invalidate this EUR/JPY forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 177.50827.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (EURJPY)
- Live quote timestamp: 24 Oct 2026 02:50 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 24 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 24 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 24 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 24 Oct 2026 16:52 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 1.00× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.10× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
