A bullish D1 structure remains the weekly anchor, but mixed momentum, a mixed close sequence and neutral H4 conditions leave the near-term path conditional.
AUD/NZD Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
AUD/NZD retains a bullish weekly bias, supported by D1 structure, while mixed momentum and neutral H4 conditions keep progress toward resistance conditional.
The weekly thesis is constructive because the D1 trend is bullish, the reference close at 1.23344 is above D1 EMA50 at 1.23007 and SMA200 at 1.20807, and both longer moving-average slopes are rising. The close remains below EMA20 and the Bollinger middle, however, so the current structure is supportive without showing complete short-term alignment.
Momentum adds restraint rather than a clean confirmation: D1 MACD is positive but below its signal, its histogram is negative, and D1 RSI is below 50. H4 is neutral, with H4 MACD above its signal but still negative and H4 RSI below 50, leaving the shorter timeframe as tactical confirmation or warning rather than a replacement for the D1 thesis.
- Bullish targets
-
- T11.24339
- T21.24741
- Bearish targets
-
- T11.22699
- T21.21835
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close below 1.22627.
Selected key events
- CPI m/m28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3High
- CPI y/y28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3High
- Trimmed Mean CPI m/m28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 1.23397 as of 24 Oct 2026 02:50 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 1.23344 as of 23 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 1.23007 |
| Secondary support | 1.22699 |
| Primary resistance | 1.23680 |
| Bullish targets | 1.24339, 1.24741 |
| Bearish targets | 1.22699, 1.21835 |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Lower 1.22627 — One completed D1 close below 1.22627 formally invalidates the bullish weekly thesis. |
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AUD/NZD Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to AUD/NZD during 24–31 October 2026 include RBA Gov Bullock Speaks, CPI m/m, CPI y/y. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Gov Bullock Speaks | 28 Oct 2026 03:15 GMT+3 | Medium | — | — |
| CPI m/m | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| CPI y/y | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 4.2% | 4.0% |
| Trimmed Mean CPI m/m | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Official Cash Rate | 28 Oct 2026 04:00 GMT+3 | High | 3.00% | 2.75% |
Current AUD/NZD Price and Weekly Market Context
D1 controls the weekly interpretation: its bullish trend and rising EMA50 and SMA200 slopes support the broader structure, while the mixed close sequence and mixed momentum reduce immediacy. The 1.23344 close is above primary support at 1.23007 and below primary resistance at 1.2368. H4 is neutral, so its shorter-term signals provide timing context and early warning rather than an independent weekly direction.
- D1 trendbullishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalneutralH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentummixedRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is AUD/NZD Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The primary scenario is a conditional bullish continuation framework supported by D1 trend and structure. A base scenario of consolidation is credible because momentum and the D1 close sequence are mixed and H4 is neutral. A bearish alternative would require deterioration through the supplied support structure, with the formal lower boundary defined by one completed D1 close below 1.22627.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- The bullish scenario would gain D1 support if the bullish trend remains intact, the reference relationship above D1 EMA50 and SMA200 persists, and price action develops above the supplied support structure toward resistance. The rising EMA50 and SMA200 slopes provide additional structural alignment.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 would provide tactical support if its neutral condition resolves through price action above H4 resistance at 1.23464 while H4 remains above H4 support at 1.23306. This would improve short-term alignment with the D1 thesis, but would not replace D1 confirmation.
- Targets
- 1.24339, 1.24741
- Scenario failure condition
- The bullish scenario would be materially weakened if price action loses the supplied support structure and the mixed D1 momentum persists, particularly if H4 fails to maintain its current position above H4 support at 1.23306.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- The base scenario would be supported if D1 remains bullish in trend but continues to show a mixed close sequence, with the close holding between the supplied support and resistance framework rather than developing clear directional follow-through.
- H4 tactical signal
- A neutral H4 condition, including H4 close positioning above H4 support at 1.23306 and below H4 resistance at 1.23464, would fit a two-sided consolidation phase while D1 remains the controlling timeframe.
- Targets
- The base case is a conditional consolidation framework between the supplied support and resistance areas, with 1.23007 and 1.2368 marking the primary weekly reference points.
- Scenario failure condition
- The base scenario would lose relevance if D1 develops sustained directional structure through the supplied weekly levels, or if one completed D1 close occurs below 1.22627 and materially changes the structural framework.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- The bearish alternative would require deterioration in the D1 structure through the supplied support area, accompanied by continued mixed or weakening momentum rather than a recovery toward the resistance framework.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 would add tactical bearish pressure if price action moves below H4 support at 1.23306 while H4 remains below H4 resistance at 1.23464. This would be an early warning against the bullish weekly thesis, not a standalone weekly confirmation.
- Targets
- 1.22699, 1.21835
- Scenario failure condition
- The bearish scenario would be weakened if D1 retains its bullish trend and the reference close remains above the supplied support structure, especially if H4 recovers above H4 resistance at 1.23464.
AUD/NZD D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The D1 close sequence is mixed rather than uniformly directional. At 1.23344, the close is above D1 EMA50 at 1.23007 and SMA200 at 1.20807, but below EMA20 at 1.23584 and the Bollinger middle at 1.2378. This combination preserves the broader bullish structure while showing that short-term price placement has not fully aligned with it.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 is neutral and therefore tactical rather than thesis-defining. The H4 close at 1.23344 is above H4 EMA20 at 1.2333 and H4 Bollinger middle at 1.23329, but below H4 EMA50 at 1.23471 and H4 resistance at 1.23464, while remaining above H4 support at 1.23306. H4 MACD is above its signal and its histogram is positive, yet both H4 MACD and H4 RSI remain negative relative to their supplied reference conditions, leaving a mixed short-term picture.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
The technical profile combines a bullish D1 trend with rising EMA50 and SMA200 slopes, a reference close above D1 EMA50 and SMA200, and stable volatility. Against that, D1 MACD is below its signal, D1 MACD histogram is negative, D1 RSI is below 50, and the D1 close sequence is mixed. H4 is neutral, with some short-term improvement but incomplete alignment against H4 EMA50 and resistance.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 24 October 2026.
- RSI48Neutral
- MACDBelow signalBearish
- Bollinger Bands30% of bandLower half
- Moving averagesAbove bothBullish
- ATR59.9 pipsStable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 49.78
RSI evidence is a restraint on the bullish D1 structure rather than a directional reversal signal. D1 RSI is below 50 and H4 RSI is also below 50, so momentum does not provide broad confirmation across timeframes.
- D1 RSI
- 48
- H4 RSI
- 49.78
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bearish momentum
MACD evidence is mixed across the hierarchy. D1 MACD is positive but below its signal and has a negative histogram, which limits bullish momentum confirmation. H4 MACD is negative but above its signal with a positive histogram, suggesting tactical improvement without full directional resolution.
- MACD
- 0.000372
- Signal
- 0.002034
- Histogram
- -0.001662
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Lower half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 close below the Bollinger middle at 1.2378 is consistent with short-term hesitation inside a broader bullish structure. On H4, the close is above the Bollinger middle at 1.23329 but below the upper band at 1.23638, indicating tactical recovery that has not yet resolved the weekly tension.
- Position in band
- 30%
- Band width
- 216.1 pips (1.75%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bullish structure
- 50 EMA rising1.23007Price is 33.7 pips above (+0.27%)
- 200 SMA rising1.20807Price is 253.7 pips above (+2.10%)
Moving averages provide the clearest structural support for the weekly bias. The D1 close is above EMA50 and SMA200, and both EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are rising, while the close below EMA20 shows that shorter-term positioning is less aligned. H4 is mixed because the close is above EMA20 but below EMA50.
- D1 close
- 1.23344
- 50 EMA
- 1.23007
- 200 SMA
- 1.20807
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Volatility is classified as stable, so ATR describes the operating environment rather than direction. Stable volatility can allow level tests to develop without providing evidence that either side will prevail.
- D1 ATR
- 0.00599 (0.49%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.00245 (0.20%)
Technical conclusion: The main thesis remains bullish at the D1 level because trend, rising longer moving-average slopes and the close above D1 EMA50 and SMA200 are aligned. The strongest counterargument is mixed momentum: D1 MACD is below its signal, the histogram is negative, RSI is below 50 and the close sequence is mixed. H4 offers partial tactical improvement but remains neutral and below H4 EMA50 and resistance. The next important weekly references are primary support at 1.23007 and primary resistance at 1.2368, with the formal bullish boundary at 1.22627.
View all live AUD/NZD oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
AUD/NZD Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.23007 | Primary support | D1 | It is the first supplied weekly support reference and also the D1 EMA50, with the reference close at 1.23344 above it. |
| 1.22699 | Secondary support | D1 | It is the second supplied support candidate and the D1 lower Bollinger level, making it an important deeper support reference. |
| 1.2368 | Primary resistance | D1 | It is the first supplied weekly resistance candidate and sits above the reference close at 1.23344. |
| 1.24339 | Secondary resistance | D1 | It is the second supplied resistance candidate and the first listed bullish reference target. |
| 1.23306 | H4 support | H4 | The H4 close at 1.23344 is above this tactical support, so it is relevant to short-term confirmation or warning. |
| 1.23464 | H4 resistance | H4 | The H4 close at 1.23344 is below this tactical resistance, leaving short-term direction unresolved. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for AUD/NZD This Week
Selected events may increase AUD/NZD volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI m/m | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| CPI y/y | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 4.0% | 4.2% |
| Trimmed Mean CPI m/m | 28 Oct 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Official Cash Rate | 28 Oct 2026 04:00 GMT+3 | High | 2.75% | 3.00% |
| RBNZ Rate Statement | 28 Oct 2026 04:00 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
Showing 5 of 7 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 24 Oct 2026 18:19 GMT+3. View the complete AUD/NZD economic calendar.
AUD/NZD Outlook for 24–31 October 2026
AUD/NZD enters the week with a bullish D1 structure, supported by the close above D1 EMA50 and SMA200 and by rising EMA50 and SMA200 slopes. That support is tempered by mixed price action and momentum: the close is below EMA20 and the Bollinger middle, while D1 MACD is below its signal and RSI is below 50.
H4 provides only neutral tactical confirmation, despite H4 MACD being above its signal and the close holding above H4 support. Primary support at 1.23007 and primary resistance at 1.2368 frame the nearer technical debate, while the 28 October AUD and NZD event cluster may increase repricing risk around those existing levels.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- Mixed D1 momentum: D1 MACD is below its signal with a negative histogram and D1 RSI is below 50, so the broader bullish trend lacks full momentum confirmation.
- Timeframe disagreement: D1 trend and moving-average structure are bullish, while H4 is neutral and the H4 close remains below H4 EMA50 and H4 resistance at 1.23464.
- Mixed price placement: The D1 close is above EMA50 and SMA200 but below EMA20 and the Bollinger middle, preserving structural support while signalling short-term hesitation.
- Scheduled AUD and NZD events: High-impact Australian inflation releases and RBNZ policy events are clustered on 28 October 2026, creating potential volatility and repricing around the existing technical levels.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bullish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close below 1.22627. One completed D1 close above 1.24459 confirms upper structural extension and continuation.
AUD/NZD Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is AUD/NZD bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is Bullish because the D1 trend is bullish and the reference close is above D1 EMA50 and SMA200, although mixed momentum prevents a one-sided interpretation.
What scenario would strengthen for AUD/NZD this week?
The bullish scenario would become more relevant if D1 structure remains supported and price action develops through the supplied resistance area. A neutral outcome remains plausible while mixed momentum and neutral H4 conditions keep the market two-sided.
What are the key AUD/NZD support and resistance levels?
Primary support is 1.23007, secondary support is 1.22699, primary resistance is 1.2368 and secondary resistance is 1.24339. The listed bullish reference targets are 1.24339 and 1.24741; bearish reference targets are 1.22699 and 1.21835.
What would invalidate this AUD/NZD forecast?
The bullish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close below 1.22627.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (AUDNZD)
- Live quote timestamp: 24 Oct 2026 02:50 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 24 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 24 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 24 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 24 Oct 2026 18:19 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 0.75× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.20× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
