Bearish daily structure remains in focus, while improving H4 momentum and a mixed close sequence temper the immediacy of the downside case.
EUR/AUD Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
The weekly bias is bearish on weak D1 structure and negative momentum, although mixed D1 closes and improving H4 MACD leave tactical scope for hesitation or a rebound.
The D1 close at 1.58619 is above the listed primary support at 1.57987 and below primary resistance at 1.60109, placing price between the immediate weekly reference levels. The broader D1 picture remains bearish: price is below the EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, while the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling. This alignment keeps downside pressure as the controlling thesis, but the mixed close sequence cautions against treating it as uninterrupted continuation.
D1 momentum supports the bearish structure, with RSI below 50 and MACD below its signal, both MACD and its histogram negative. H4 is still classified bearish and price remains below its moving averages, but H4 MACD is above its signal and its histogram is positive; this is a tactical counterweight, not a change to the D1 thesis. Stable volatility describes the current environment rather than direction, while AUD policy events and EUR inflation and central-bank communication may bring repricing risk.
- Bullish targets
-
- T11.60658
- T21.61489
- Bearish targets
-
- T11.57033 (projected)
- T21.5608 (projected)
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 1.60395.
Selected key events
- Cash Rate3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3High
- RBA Monetary Policy Statement3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3High
- RBA Rate Statement3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 1.58752 as of 31 Oct 2026 01:50 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 1.58619 as of 30 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 1.57987 |
| Secondary support | — |
| Primary resistance | 1.60109 |
| Bullish targets | 1.60658, 1.61489 |
| Bearish targets | 1.57033 (projected), 1.5608 (projected) |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 1.60395 — One completed D1 close above 1.60395 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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EUR/AUD Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to EUR/AUD during 31 October–7 November 2026 include Cash Rate, RBA Monetary Policy Statement, RBA Rate Statement. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Rate | 3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 | High | 4.85% | 4.60% |
| RBA Monetary Policy Statement | 3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| RBA Rate Statement | 3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| RBA Press Conference | 3 Nov 2026 07:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 4 Nov 2026 13:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 2.5% | 2.5% |
Current EUR/AUD Price and Weekly Market Context
D1 controls the weekly view: its bearish trend state is reinforced by price below the EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, with both longer moving-average slopes falling. Negative D1 momentum adds confirmation, while the mixed close sequence argues for caution about follow-through. H4 remains bearish by state and price is below its moving averages, but its MACD is above its signal and histogram positive, offering a tactical counter-signal. Stable volatility does not resolve that tension; scheduled AUD and EUR events may make level tests less orderly.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbearishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentumnegativeRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is EUR/AUD Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The bearish scenario is supported by D1 trend, moving-average placement and negative momentum, with 1.57987 the listed primary support reference. The base case is two-sided consolidation between the supplied support and resistance references if mixed closes and H4 momentum improvement persist. A bullish alternative would require development against the prevailing D1 structure; resistance at 1.60109 and 1.60658 frames that countertrend context. All paths remain conditional, particularly around scheduled AUD and EUR events.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A bullish alternative would gain D1 evidence if price action moved through the supplied resistance area and the D1 structure no longer remained below its moving averages and Bollinger middle. The current data does not establish such a change; a completed D1 close above 1.60395 is the formal boundary for setting aside the bearish thesis.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 momentum already offers a limited early countertrend signal: MACD is above its signal and its histogram is positive. Further tactical support would require H4 price to overcome its supplied resistance at 1.59398; this would remain H4 evidence, not weekly D1 confirmation.
- Targets
- 1.60658, 1.61489
- Scenario failure condition
- The countertrend case would weaken if H4 momentum improvement faded while price remained below H4 resistance at 1.59398 and D1 continued to hold its bearish structure.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- A consolidation reading would be supported by continued mixed D1 closes with price contained between the supplied primary support at 1.57987 and primary resistance at 1.60109, rather than a decisive structural extension in either direction.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4's positive MACD histogram and close above its Bollinger middle support the possibility of temporary stabilization, while H4 price remains below its EMA20 and EMA50 and below H4 resistance at 1.59398.
- Targets
- The supplied primary D1 references are 1.57987 support and 1.60109 resistance. Holding between them would keep the near-term picture two-sided; these are reference levels, not a guarantee of a contained range.
- Scenario failure condition
- The consolidation scenario would weaken if D1 price action moved beyond the supplied range references with a completed close that established directional follow-through; a completed D1 close above 1.60395 would also set aside the formal bearish thesis.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- The bearish case remains supported by the D1 trend state, price below the EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, falling EMA50 and SMA200 slopes, and negative momentum. Continued D1 pressure toward the listed 1.57987 support would keep the downside scenario relevant.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 provides only partial tactical support: its state is bearish and price remains below its EMA20 and EMA50, but MACD above signal and a positive histogram warn that immediate downside follow-through may be hesitant. A return of H4 MACD pressure below its signal would add tactical alignment, not replace D1 confirmation.
- Targets
- 1.57033 (projected), 1.5608 (projected)
- Scenario failure condition
- The bearish scenario would materially weaken if D1 moved back through the supplied resistance area, especially if one completed D1 close were above 1.60395. H4 momentum improvement alone is an early warning, not sufficient evidence of a weekly reversal.
EUR/AUD D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The D1 close of 1.58619 sits above the listed support at 1.57987 and below the primary resistance at 1.60109. Price is also below the D1 EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, while the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling. This combination supports a bearish structural reading; the mixed close sequence is the main restraint on claims of clean directional continuation.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 remains classified bearish, and its close is below the H4 EMA20 and EMA50 and below H4 resistance at 1.59398. However, H4 price is above its Bollinger middle and its support at 1.58281, while MACD is above its signal and the histogram is positive. The resulting tactical picture is mixed: downside structure persists, but momentum improvement and the position above H4 support can delay confirmation. D1 remains controlling for the weekly view.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
The D1 configuration is bearish across trend, moving-average placement and momentum, with price below the EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle and MACD below signal with a negative histogram. The mixed D1 close sequence and H4 momentum improvement qualify that alignment. Stable volatility offers no directional signal; the supplied D1 and H4 levels provide the relevant structure for monitoring conditional scenarios.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 31 October 2026.
- RSI37.32Neutral
- MACDBelow signalBearish
- Bollinger Bands15% of bandLower half
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR95.4 pipsStable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 45.83
D1 RSI below 50 is consistent with the bearish momentum reading, not a standalone forecast. H4 RSI is also below 50, so it does not yet negate the broader pressure despite H4 MACD improvement.
- D1 RSI
- 37.32
- H4 RSI
- 45.83
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bearish momentum
D1 MACD is below its signal, with both MACD and histogram negative, supporting the weekly bearish thesis. H4 MACD is above its signal and its histogram is positive despite a negative MACD value, indicating a tactical improvement that may temper immediate follow-through.
- MACD
- -0.007947
- Signal
- -0.006262
- Histogram
- -0.001685
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Lower half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
D1 price is below its Bollinger middle, consistent with weak structure, while H4 price is above its middle, showing short-term stabilization rather than a confirmed change in the weekly direction. Stable volatility remains a description of conditions, not a directional signal.
- Position in band
- 15%
- Band width
- 424.4 pips (2.65%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling1.61034Price is 241.5 pips below (-1.50%)
- 200 SMA falling1.63773Price is 515.4 pips below (-3.15%)
D1 price below the EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, alongside falling EMA50 and SMA200 slopes, is the clearest structural support for the bearish view. H4 price also remains below its EMA20 and EMA50, although its improving MACD makes the tactical picture less one-sided.
- D1 close
- 1.58619
- 50 EMA
- 1.61034
- 200 SMA
- 1.63773
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Volatility is classified as stable. ATR contextualizes the environment rather than direction; the bearish targets are projected ATR-based reference targets and should not be read as structural support.
- D1 ATR
- 0.00954 (0.60%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.00403 (0.25%)
Technical conclusion: The weekly case remains bearish because D1 structure and momentum align below key moving-average references, with falling longer averages adding context. The strongest counterargument is tactical: H4 MACD has improved and price is above its Bollinger middle and H4 support, while the D1 close sequence is mixed. The next supplied D1 references are 1.57987 support and 1.60109 resistance; bearish targets are projected ATR-based references, not structural levels.
View all live EUR/AUD oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
EUR/AUD Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.57987 | Primary D1 support | D1 | The D1 reference close is above this listed support; it is the immediate supplied support boundary for assessing whether downside pressure is extending. |
| 1.60109 | Primary D1 resistance | D1 | The D1 close is below this resistance, which also matches the D1 Bollinger middle; it is the first supplied resistance reference against a recovery. |
| 1.60658 | Secondary D1 resistance | D1 | This is the second supplied resistance candidate and a permitted bullish target reference; a move through it would be countertrend context, not by itself a change to the D1 thesis. |
| 1.58281 | H4 support | H4 | H4 price is above this tactical support, a short-term stabilizing factor within the bearish D1 structure. |
| 1.59398 | H4 resistance | H4 | H4 price is below this resistance; it is the supplied tactical reference for judging whether the H4 momentum improvement is accompanied by price progress. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for EUR/AUD This Week
Selected events may increase EUR/AUD volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Rate | 3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 | High | 4.60% | 4.85% |
| RBA Monetary Policy Statement | 3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| RBA Rate Statement | 3 Nov 2026 06:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| RBA Press Conference | 3 Nov 2026 07:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 4 Nov 2026 13:00 GMT+3 | Medium | 2.5% | 2.5% |
Showing 5 of 7 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 31 Oct 2026 17:22 GMT+3. View the complete EUR/AUD economic calendar.
EUR/AUD Outlook for 31 October–7 November 2026
D1 structure and momentum keep the weekly balance tilted lower: EUR/AUD is below its listed moving averages and Bollinger middle, with negative MACD and RSI below 50. The mixed close sequence and H4 MACD improvement matter because they leave room for stabilization or countertrend pressure before any further structural development.
The supplied D1 support at 1.57987 and resistance at 1.60109 frame the immediate technical context. The bearish reference targets at 1.57033 and 1.5608 are ATR-based projections rather than structural support. AUD policy events on 3 November, euro-area inflation releases on 4 November and ECB communication on 5 November may raise repricing risk without implying a particular outcome.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- H4 momentum conflicts with the D1 momentum picture: H4 MACD is above its signal with a positive histogram, while D1 MACD remains below signal with a negative histogram. That divergence between timeframes can make the timing of any D1 continuation less immediate.
- Mixed D1 close sequence: The bearish D1 trend is not accompanied by a uniform close sequence, tempering the strength of a continuation reading.
- AUD monetary-policy events: The high-impact RBA events scheduled on 3 Nov 2026 may cause AUD repricing and volatility around the technical framework without a known directional outcome.
- Euro-area inflation and ECB communication: The scheduled EUR releases and speech may reprice the euro leg and complicate interpretation of technical moves.
- Stable volatility classification: Stable volatility does not resolve directional uncertainty; it offers no independent confirmation that either side will extend or reverse.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 1.60395. One completed D1 close below 1.57467 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
EUR/AUD Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is EUR/AUD bullish or bearish this week?
Bearish, because D1 trend, moving-average positioning and momentum are aligned to the downside. Mixed D1 closes and a partial H4 momentum improvement make the setup conditional rather than one-sided.
What scenario would strengthen for EUR/AUD this week?
The bearish case remains more relevant while D1 retains its bearish structure; a completed D1 close above 1.60395 would set aside that formal thesis. H4 momentum improvement can delay or complicate the path without independently changing the weekly bias.
What are the key EUR/AUD support and resistance levels?
The D1 reference close is 1.58619, between primary support at 1.57987 and primary resistance at 1.60109. The bearish projected ATR-based reference targets are 1.57033 and 1.5608; they are not structural support levels.
What would invalidate this EUR/AUD forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 1.60395.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (EURAUD)
- Live quote timestamp: 31 Oct 2026 01:50 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 31 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 31 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 31 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 31 Oct 2026 17:22 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 0.75× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.30× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
