The D1 structure remains bearish, but positive D1 momentum and neutral H4 conditions leave the weekly picture mixed around the current close.
CAD/JPY Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
CAD/JPY retains a bearish weekly bias, but positive D1 momentum and neutral H4 conditions make continuation conditional around 111.35275 and 112.439.
The weekly thesis is controlled by the bearish D1 trend: the close is below the D1 EMA50 and SMA200, while both the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling. Price remains above the primary support at 111.35275 and below the primary resistance at 112.439, leaving the larger structure bearish but not yet resolved through those boundaries.
The counterweight is D1 momentum. D1 MACD is above its signal, the histogram is positive, RSI is above 50, and the close is above the EMA20 and Bollinger middle. H4 is neutral rather than confirming the bearish trend, with H4 MACD below its signal and RSI below 50. This combination supports two-sided tactical risk rather than a certain directional outcome.
- Bullish targets
-
- T1112.898
- T2114.19359
- Bearish targets
-
- T1110.805
- T2110.1784
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 113.03329.
Selected key events
- BOC Monetary Policy Report28 Oct 2026 16:45 GMT+3High
- BOC Rate Statement28 Oct 2026 16:45 GMT+3High
- Overnight Rate28 Oct 2026 16:45 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 111.915 as of 24 Oct 2026 02:50 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 112.027 as of 23 October 2026 |
| Primary support | 111.353 |
| Secondary support | 110.805 |
| Primary resistance | 112.439 |
| Bullish targets | 112.898, 114.19359 |
| Bearish targets | 110.805, 110.1784 |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 113.033 — One completed D1 close above 113.033 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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CAD/JPY Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to CAD/JPY during 24–31 October 2026 include BOC Monetary Policy Report, BOC Rate Statement, Overnight Rate. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOC Monetary Policy Report | 28 Oct 2026 16:45 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| BOC Rate Statement | 28 Oct 2026 16:45 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| Overnight Rate | 28 Oct 2026 16:45 GMT+3 | High | 2.50% | 2.25% |
| BOC Press Conference | 28 Oct 2026 17:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| Tokyo Core CPI y/y | 30 Oct 2026 02:30 GMT+3 | Medium | 2.6% | 2.7% |
Current CAD/JPY Price and Weekly Market Context
D1 controls the weekly interpretation: the trend state is bearish, the close sequence is mixed, and falling EMA50 and SMA200 slopes reinforce the structural pressure. Momentum is mixed because D1 measures are constructive while H4 measures are weaker. H4 is neutral and therefore provides tactical hesitation rather than a replacement for the D1 thesis.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalneutralH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentummixedRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is CAD/JPY Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The bearish scenario remains the primary framework while D1 structure is below 112.439 and above 111.35275. A bullish alternative would require D1 improvement through the supplied resistance framework, while the base case represents consolidation between the established support and resistance areas. Stable volatility suggests that directional development may remain measured, although scheduled events can still create repricing risk.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A bullish alternative would gain technical support from one completed D1 close above 113.03329, which would move price beyond the formal upper boundary and challenge the bearish structure.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 would provide tactical support to the bullish alternative if its neutral condition shifted alongside a move above the supplied H4 resistance at 112.136, but H4 cannot replace D1 confirmation for the weekly thesis.
- Targets
- 112.898, 114.19359
- Scenario failure condition
- The bullish alternative would weaken if D1 remains below 112.439 and the close returns toward or below the primary support at 111.35275.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- The base scenario is supported while the D1 close remains between the supplied primary support at 111.35275 and primary resistance at 112.439 without a clear structural resolution.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 currently fits the base scenario because its state is neutral: H4 MACD is below its signal, RSI is below 50, and the close is above H4 support at 111.991 but below H4 resistance at 112.136.
- Targets
- The base case is a two-sided range framework between 111.35275 and 112.439, with 111.991 and 112.136 providing nearer H4 reference points.
- Scenario failure condition
- The base scenario would weaken if a completed D1 close establishes movement beyond the formal boundaries at 110.98546 or 113.03329.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- The bearish scenario is reinforced if the D1 structure remains below 112.439 while the close sequence resolves lower toward the primary support at 111.35275.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 would add tactical support to the bearish scenario if price moves below H4 support at 111.991 while its existing negative MACD and RSI readings below 50 persist.
- Targets
- 110.805, 110.1784
- Scenario failure condition
- The bearish scenario would materially weaken after one completed D1 close above 113.03329, while movement above 112.439 without that close would still represent a challenge to the near-term structure.
CAD/JPY D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The D1 close is above the primary support at 111.35275 and below the primary resistance at 112.439. It is above the EMA20 and Bollinger middle but below the EMA50 and SMA200, while the close sequence is mixed. This places price in a structurally bearish but internally conflicted position.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 is neutral and complicates immediate bearish follow-through. The H4 close is above H4 support at 111.991 and below H4 resistance at 112.136, while H4 MACD is below its signal with a negative histogram and H4 RSI is below 50. H4 therefore supplies downside pressure but not a completed weekly confirmation.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
The D1 trend is bearish with a mixed close sequence and mixed momentum, while volatility is stable. D1 MACD is above its signal with positive MACD and histogram readings, and D1 RSI is above 50. The D1 close is above EMA20 and Bollinger middle but below EMA50 and SMA200. H4 is neutral, with negative MACD and histogram readings and RSI below 50.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 24 October 2026.
- RSI52.76Neutral
- MACDAbove signalBullish
- Bollinger Bands79% of bandUpper half
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR73.5 pipsStable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 49.44
D1 RSI above 50 provides constructive momentum against the bearish trend, while H4 RSI below 50 shows weaker tactical momentum. The disagreement supports a conditional bearish reading rather than a one-sided signal.
- D1 RSI
- 52.76
- H4 RSI
- 49.44
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bullish momentum
D1 MACD momentum is constructive relative to its signal, but H4 momentum is weaker. This timeframe split limits the immediacy of the bearish D1 thesis and leaves room for consolidation or countertrend pressure.
- MACD
- 0.013282
- Signal
- -0.184242
- Histogram
- 0.197524
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Upper half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 close is above the Bollinger middle, which supports the constructive side of the mixed momentum picture despite the bearish trend. On H4, the close is below the Bollinger middle, preserving tactical weakness without independently changing the weekly thesis.
- Position in band
- 79%
- Band width
- 234.9 pips (2.11%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling112.272Price is 24.5 pips below (-0.22%)
- 200 SMA falling114.194Price is 216.7 pips below (-1.90%)
The moving-average configuration is the strongest structural support for the bearish weekly view: the D1 close is below EMA50 and SMA200, and both EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling. The close above EMA20 shows that shorter-term recovery pressure remains present.
- D1 close
- 112.027
- 50 EMA
- 112.272
- 200 SMA
- 114.194
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
Stable volatility indicates a comparatively steady trading environment rather than directional evidence. The D1 ATR provides context for the scale of projected movement, while scheduled high-impact CAD and JPY events may still increase the pace of level tests.
- D1 ATR
- 0.73459 (0.66%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.31731 (0.28%)
Technical conclusion: The D1 moving-average structure and bearish trend remain the central weekly evidence, with 112.439 as the primary resistance and 111.35275 as the primary support. Positive D1 momentum and neutral H4 conditions are the strongest counterarguments, making the bearish thesis conditional rather than certain. A completed D1 close above 113.03329 would materially weaken the framework, while the lower structural boundary is 110.98546.
View all live CAD/JPY oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
CAD/JPY Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111.35275 | Primary support | D1 | The reference D1 close of 112.027 is above this level, making it the first supplied downside structure to monitor within the weekly framework. |
| 110.805 | Secondary support | D1 | This is the next supplied support below 111.35275 and also a permitted bearish reference target. |
| 112.439 | Primary resistance | D1 | The reference D1 close of 112.027 is below this level, so it marks the first supplied upside barrier to a stronger recovery. |
| 112.898 | Secondary resistance | D1 | This is the next supplied resistance above 112.439 and a permitted bullish reference target. |
| 111.991 | H4 support | H4 | The H4 close of 112.027 is above this tactical support, so a move below it would add short-term downside pressure. |
| 112.136 | H4 resistance | H4 | The H4 close of 112.027 is below this tactical resistance, keeping the immediate H4 structure bounded. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for CAD/JPY This Week
Selected events may increase CAD/JPY volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOC Monetary Policy Report | 28 Oct 2026 16:45 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| BOC Rate Statement | 28 Oct 2026 16:45 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| Overnight Rate | 28 Oct 2026 16:45 GMT+3 | High | 2.25% | 2.50% |
| BOC Press Conference | 28 Oct 2026 17:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| BOJ Policy Rate | 30 Oct 2026 (Tentative) | High | <1.25% | <1.25% |
Showing 5 of 10 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 24 Oct 2026 17:42 GMT+3. View the complete CAD/JPY economic calendar.
CAD/JPY Outlook for 24–31 October 2026
CAD/JPY enters 24–31 October 2026 with a bearish D1 structure, supported by the close below EMA50 and SMA200 and the falling slopes of both averages. The close remains above 111.35275 and below 112.439, so the weekly thesis has not resolved through its primary levels.
Positive D1 momentum and neutral H4 conditions prevent a deterministic interpretation. H4 weakness below its resistance at 112.136 provides some tactical downside pressure, but the D1 timeframe remains controlling. The BOC and BOJ event clusters may create repricing around the established framework, with one completed D1 close above 113.03329 materially weakening the bearish case.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- D1 momentum conflict: D1 MACD is above its signal, the histogram is positive and RSI is above 50, which can support countertrend pressure against the bearish structural view.
- H4 does not fully confirm the D1 thesis: H4 is neutral, with the close above H4 support at 111.991 and below H4 resistance at 112.136, allowing consolidation or delayed resolution.
- Mixed D1 price structure: The close is above EMA20 and Bollinger middle but below EMA50 and SMA200, leaving shorter-term recovery pressure inside a weaker longer-term configuration.
- Scheduled CAD and JPY event risk: High-impact BOC and BOJ events, alongside medium-impact inflation and GDP releases, may accelerate repricing around the established levels without a predetermined direction.
- Stable volatility may delay development: The stable volatility state can be consistent with measured movement or consolidation, reducing the immediacy of directional scenario progression.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 113.03329. One completed D1 close below 110.98546 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
CAD/JPY Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is CAD/JPY bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is Bearish because the D1 trend is bearish and the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling, although D1 momentum and neutral H4 conditions temper the signal.
What scenario would strengthen for CAD/JPY this week?
The bearish scenario becomes more relevant if D1 structure continues to hold below 112.439 and price develops toward 111.35275, with 110.805 and 110.1784 as lower reference levels. A sustained alternative is not assumed.
What are the key CAD/JPY support and resistance levels?
Primary support is 111.35275 and secondary support is 110.805. Primary resistance is 112.439 and secondary resistance is 112.898. The listed bullish references are 112.898 and 114.19359; bearish references are 110.805 and 110.1784.
What would invalidate this CAD/JPY forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 113.03329.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (CADJPY)
- Live quote timestamp: 24 Oct 2026 02:50 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 24 October 2026
- Chart timestamp: 24 October 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 24 October 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 24 Oct 2026 17:42 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 0.75× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.50× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
