The daily trend sits below its key moving averages, momentum is mixed and the H4 tactical picture leans bearish. Price remains between primary support and primary resistance, so the scheduled ECB speech is a potential volatility catalyst rather than a directional signal.
Daily check — 11 November 2026: The latest completed D1 close was 177.161 on 10 November 2026. It remains below the upper formal invalidation level 177.971; the lower calibrated boundary 175.158 is an extension/confirmation boundary. The authored weekly thesis remains valid.
EUR/JPY Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
EUR/JPY carries a bearish weekly bias for 9–14 November 2026 because the D1 close sits below its EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, though mixed momentum keeps the setup from being one-directional.
The controlling view is bearish because the D1 trend state is bearish and the close at 176.562 sits below the EMA20 at 177.01025, the EMA50 at 178.55169 and the SMA200 at 183.08837, with both the EMA50 and SMA200 falling. Price is not yet in a clean breakdown, however. It remains above primary support at 175.392 and below primary resistance at 177.577, so the week is defined by a range that still needs a completed D1 close to resolve it.
Momentum keeps the thesis from being one-sided. The D1 MACD at -0.470016 holds above its signal at -0.68606 with a positive histogram, suggesting bearish pressure has eased relative to the signal line even though MACD remains negative and RSI at 44.24 is below 50. The H4 state is bearish, with the close below its EMA20, EMA50 and Bollinger middle and MACD below its signal, which supports a tactical lean lower while the H4 close still sits between H4 support at 176.532 and H4 resistance at 176.576. The ECB speech is a potential volatility catalyst for the euro leg but does not change the weekly framework by itself.
- Bullish targets
-
- T1178.29811
- T2179.299
- Bearish targets
-
- T1174.22809 (projected)
- T2173.06418 (projected)
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 177.97139.
Selected key events
- ECB President Lagarde Speaks12 Nov 2026 22:30 GMT+3Medium
| Price at last update | 177.353 as of 11 Nov 2026 06:15 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 176.562 as of 6 November 2026 |
| Primary support | 175.392 |
| Secondary support | — |
| Primary resistance | 177.577 |
| Bullish targets | 178.29811, 179.299 |
| Bearish targets | 174.22809 (projected), 173.06418 (projected) |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 177.971 — One completed D1 close above 177.971 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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EUR/JPY Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to EUR/JPY during 9–14 November 2026 include ECB President Lagarde Speaks. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| ECB President Lagarde Speaks | 12 Nov 2026 22:30 GMT+3 | Medium |
Current EUR/JPY Price and Weekly Market Context
The weekly structure is set on D1. The trend state is bearish, price closes below the EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, and the close sequence is mixed rather than a clean run of lower closes. Momentum does not fully confirm the trend: MACD is above its signal line but negative, with a positive histogram. H4 is tactically bearish with RSI below 50 and MACD below its signal, yet its close sits above H4 support and below H4 resistance, so H4 supports the lean without confirming a break. Volatility is stable, which points to slower development rather than an expansion-driven move.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbearishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentummixedRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is EUR/JPY Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The bearish bias is the controlling view, but price is inside a range between primary support and primary resistance, so the scenarios differ mainly by which boundary a completed D1 close resolves. The bullish alternative needs upper recovery, the base case represents continued range trade, and the bearish path requires a completed break below the range floor.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- A completed D1 close above primary resistance at 177.577 would show D1 structure pushing beyond the upper boundary of the current range, the first step that makes the bullish alternative relevant.
- H4 tactical signal
- An H4 close above H4 resistance at 176.576 would show short-term pressure turning upward and provide the first tactical sign that the bullish alternative is gaining relevance, with D1 confirmation still required.
- Targets
- 178.29811, 179.299
- Scenario failure condition
- The bullish path would weaken if a D1 close above 177.577 fails to hold and price returns below that level, or if H4 closes remain below 176.576 while the H4 averages stay above price.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- D1 closes that remain between primary support at 175.392 and primary resistance at 177.577 would show price still rotating within the range rather than resolving it, which keeps the base case a genuine consolidation outcome.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 closes that alternate around the H4 levels at 176.532 and 176.576 would show tactical hesitation without a clear directional push.
- Targets
- Range between primary support at 175.392 and primary resistance at 177.577, with secondary resistance at 178.29811 as the next upper D1 reference above the range.
- Scenario failure condition
- The range scenario would weaken if a completed D1 close moves above primary resistance at 177.577 or below primary support at 175.392, as consolidation would then resolve into one of the directional paths.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- A completed D1 close below primary support at 175.392 would confirm a structural break of the range floor and align D1 structure with the bearish trend state.
- H4 tactical signal
- An H4 close below H4 support at 176.532 would show tactical pressure extending lower in line with the H4 bearish state and would mark the timing trigger for the bearish path.
- Targets
- 174.22809 (projected), 173.06418 (projected)
- Scenario failure condition
- The bearish path would weaken if H4 closes recover above H4 resistance at 176.576 and the D1 close holds above primary support at 175.392, leaving the downside break unconfirmed.
EUR/JPY D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The D1 close at 176.562 sits inside the primary range, above primary support at 175.392 and below primary resistance at 177.577. It is below the EMA20 at 177.01025, the EMA50 at 178.55169, the SMA200 at 183.08837 and the Bollinger middle at 176.7864, so the moving-average structure remains on the bearish side of price. The close sequence is mixed, meaning the bearish trend is established in structure but has not yet been forced by a decisive break. The upper Bollinger band at 178.29811 matches secondary resistance and the first bullish target, marking the next D1 structural area above the range.
H4 Tactical Triggers
H4 provides tactical context rather than a separate weekly thesis. The H4 close sits above H4 support at 176.532 but below H4 resistance at 176.576, so short-term price is confined between those two levels. RSI at 43.2 is below 50, MACD is below its signal with a negative histogram, and the close is below the EMA20 at 176.93847, the EMA50 at 176.8547 and the Bollinger middle at 177.2774. These readings confirm the bearish lean at tactical scale. The caution is that H4 has not yet moved clear of its own support and resistance pair, so tactical confirmation of downside pressure would come from a close below 176.532.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
D1 is bearish with mixed momentum, a mixed close sequence and stable volatility. H4 is bearish. The D1 close at 176.562 is inside primary support at 175.392 and primary resistance at 177.577 and below the main moving averages.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 11 November 2026.
- RSI44.24Neutral
- MACDAbove signalBullish
- Bollinger Bands43% of bandLower half
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR116.4 pipsStable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 43.2
D1 RSI at 44.24 sits below the 50 midline, supporting the bearish trend state without signalling a break on its own. H4 RSI at 43.2 is also below 50, so both timeframes show momentum leaning lower, reinforcing the tactical picture without adding a new level.
- D1 RSI
- 44.24
- H4 RSI
- 43.2
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bullish momentum
D1 MACD remains negative but sits above its signal line with a positive histogram. This is the clearest conflicting momentum element, as bearish pressure has eased relative to the signal even though the MACD sign is still negative. On H4, MACD is below its signal with a negative histogram, so tactical momentum still leans lower. The two timeframes therefore disagree on the direction of momentum relative to signal, which keeps the weekly setup from being fully aligned.
- MACD
- -0.470016
- Signal
- -0.68606
- Histogram
- 0.216044
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Lower half
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 close is below the middle band, which keeps price on the weaker side of its recent average. The upper D1 band at 178.29811 is the next structural reference above the range and coincides with secondary resistance. The lower D1 band at 175.27469 sits below primary support at 175.392, so the range floor is the key boundary before band-based downside is considered. On H4, the close is below the middle band, consistent with the tactical bearish state.
- Position in band
- 43%
- Band width
- 302.3 pips (1.71%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling178.552Price is 199.0 pips below (-1.11%)
- 200 SMA falling183.088Price is 652.6 pips below (-3.56%)
D1 price sits below the EMA20 at 177.01025, the EMA50 at 178.55169 and the SMA200 at 183.08837, with the EMA50 and SMA200 both falling. This is the strongest structural support for the bearish weekly view because the medium and long-term slopes still point lower. The EMA20 is the nearest average above price and is the first moving-average reference the close needs to recover. On H4, price is below both the EMA20 at 176.93847 and the EMA50 at 176.8547 while remaining above H4 support, which keeps the tactical structure leaning lower.
- D1 close
- 176.562
- 50 EMA
- 178.552
- 200 SMA
- 183.088
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
D1 ATR of 1.16391 and H4 ATR of 0.44102 describe a stable volatility state. Stable volatility implies slower development and a contained trading environment rather than an expansion-led move, so it reduces the case for fast tests of the boundaries without indicating direction. The ECB speech could still add a temporary volatility spike around the primary levels.
- D1 ATR
- 1.16391 (0.66%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.44102 (0.25%)
Technical conclusion: The D1 trend is bearish and controls the weekly thesis: price trades below its key moving averages, the EMA50 and SMA200 slope lower, and the bearish H4 state supports the lean at tactical scale. The strongest supporting evidence is the moving-average structure. The strongest counterargument is D1 momentum, where MACD sits above its signal with a positive histogram and the close sequence is mixed, while the close remains above primary support at 175.392. The next levels that matter are primary resistance at 177.577 and the upper D1 Bollinger band at 178.29811, with primary support at 175.392 as the test for bearish follow-through.
View all live EUR/JPY oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
EUR/JPY Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 175.392 | Primary support | D1 | Lower boundary of the current D1 range; a completed D1 close below it is the main structural test for the bearish path. |
| 177.577 | Primary resistance | D1 | Upper boundary of the current range; a completed D1 close above it would begin to challenge the bearish trend. |
| 178.29811 | Secondary resistance | D1 | Next upper D1 reference above primary resistance, aligned with the upper Bollinger band and the first bullish target. |
| 179.299 | Further resistance reference | D1 | Higher D1 reference above the range and the second bullish target. |
| 176.532 | H4 support | H4 | Tactical floor; an H4 close below it would confirm short-term pressure in line with the H4 bearish state. |
| 176.576 | H4 resistance | H4 | Tactical ceiling; an H4 close above it would signal tactical recovery and serves as the bullish H4 trigger. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for EUR/JPY This Week
Selected events may increase EUR/JPY volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECB President Lagarde Speaks | 12 Nov 2026 22:30 GMT+3 | Medium | — | — |
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 09 Nov 2026 14:47 GMT+3. View the complete EUR/JPY economic calendar.
EUR/JPY Outlook for 9–14 November 2026
The weekly view leans bearish because the D1 structure sits below its key moving averages with falling longer-term slopes, and H4 supports the tactical lean. The bias is not one-sided, however: D1 momentum and the D1 close sequence are mixed, and price remains inside the primary range.
The decisive test is whether a completed D1 close resolves the range. A completed D1 close above 177.577 would shift attention toward the bullish targets at 178.29811 and 179.299, while a completed D1 close below 175.392 would bring the ATR-based reference targets at 174.22809 and 173.06418 into focus. The ECB speech adds potential volatility around these levels, but the framework remains anchored to completed D1 closes.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- Range containment: The D1 close at 176.562 sits between primary support at 175.392 and primary resistance at 177.577, so the trend has not yet forced a directional resolution.
- D1 momentum conflict: MACD sits above its signal with a positive histogram despite a negative MACD sign and RSI below 50, a conflict that can slow bearish follow-through.
- ECB speech event: Lagarde speaks on 12 Nov 2026 22:30 GMT+3 with medium impact on the euro leg, so a volatility spike could test the primary levels abruptly.
- ATR-based bearish reference targets: The bearish targets at 174.22809 and 173.06418 are projections from primary support rather than structural levels, so they work as reference points rather than confirmed zones.
- H4 tactical confinement: The H4 close remains between 176.532 and 176.576 and below its EMAs, so tactical signals can change within a narrow band and may not yet confirm the D1 lean.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 177.97139. One completed D1 close below 175.15830 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
EUR/JPY Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is EUR/JPY bullish or bearish this week?
The forecast bias is Bearish because the D1 trend is bearish, the close sits below its EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200 with both longer averages sloping lower, and H4 also reads bearish. D1 momentum is mixed, so the view is a weekly lean rather than a certainty.
What scenario would strengthen for EUR/JPY this week?
The bearish scenario gains relevance on a completed D1 close below primary support at 175.392, supported by an H4 close below H4 support at 176.532, with ATR-based reference targets at 174.22809 and 173.06418. The base scenario, a range between 175.392 and 177.577, remains a credible alternative while the close is inside that range and momentum is mixed.
What are the key EUR/JPY support and resistance levels?
Primary support is 175.392 and primary resistance is 177.577, with secondary resistance at 178.29811 as the next D1 reference above the range. The H4 levels at 176.532 and 176.576 are tactical markers inside the D1 range rather than weekly boundaries.
What would invalidate this EUR/JPY forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 177.97139.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (EURJPY)
- Live quote timestamp: 11 Nov 2026 06:15 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 9 November 2026
- Chart timestamp: 11 November 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 9 November 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 09 Nov 2026 14:47 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 1.00× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.10× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
