Price sits below the D1 moving averages and Bollinger middle with negative momentum, while H4 trades at its support and US inflation and producer-price releases add event risk.
Daily check — 11 November 2026: The latest completed D1 close was 1.05710 on 10 November 2026. It remains below the upper formal invalidation level 1.29671; the lower calibrated boundary 0.97859 is an extension/confirmation boundary. The authored weekly thesis remains valid.
XRP/USD Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
Bearish: D1 remains below its EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle with negative momentum, and H4 confirms short-term weakness, though the mixed D1 close sequence tempers conviction.
The D1 framework sets the weekly thesis. The reference close of 1.1758 sits below the EMA20 at 1.29706, the SMA200 at 1.30546, the EMA50 at 1.3207 and the Bollinger middle at 1.29767, a configuration that keeps the trend bearish even though the EMA50 and SMA200 are both sloping lower. Momentum agrees: D1 MACD is below its signal line with a negative histogram, and RSI at 34.91 sits below 50, so momentum supports the trend rather than contradicting it. The main offset is the mixed close sequence, which shows that recent D1 closes have not produced a uniformly lower path, and the reference close remains above the 1.1166 primary support. The bearish case therefore depends on whether that level gives way on completed D1 closes.
The H4 picture adds timing context rather than a separate forecast. The H4 close of 1.0907 equals the H4 support and sits below the H4 EMA20 at 1.21052, EMA50 at 1.24936, Bollinger middle at 1.23536 and lower band at 1.10486, with H4 MACD below its signal and RSI at 18.43. That confirms short-term weakness, but it also shows that the lower tactical picture is already stretched and resting on a support level at 1.0907, which is itself below the D1 primary support of 1.1166. A completed D1 close back above 1.1166 would be the first sign that weekly pressure is easing, while a completed D1 close above 1.2898 would be needed to challenge the bearish framework more directly.
- Bullish targets
-
- T11.337
- T21.3819
- Bearish targets
-
- T11.0819
- T21.0421
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 1.29671.
Selected key events
- Core CPI y/y10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
- CPI y/y10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
- Core CPI m/m10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3High
| Price at last update | 1.04670 as of 11 Nov 2026 06:20 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 1.17580 as of 6 November 2026 |
| Primary support | 1.11660 |
| Secondary support | 1.08190 |
| Primary resistance | 1.28980 |
| Bullish targets | 1.337, 1.3819 |
| Bearish targets | 1.0819, 1.0421 |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 1.29671 — One completed D1 close above 1.29671 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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XRP/USD Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to XRP/USD during 9–14 November 2026 include FOMC Member Waller Speaks, Core CPI y/y, CPI y/y. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC Member Waller Speaks | 10 Nov 2026 12:00 GMT+3 | Medium | — | — |
| Core CPI y/y | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | — | 2.6% |
| CPI y/y | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | — | 3.7% |
| Core CPI m/m | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| CPI m/m | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.3% | 0.6% |
Current XRP/USD Price and Weekly Market Context
On D1, the reference close of 1.1758 sits inside the 1.1166 to 1.2898 range, above primary support and below primary resistance, while remaining beneath the EMA20 at 1.29706, SMA200 at 1.30546, EMA50 at 1.3207 and Bollinger middle at 1.29767. Momentum confirms the trend, with negative MACD and histogram readings and RSI at 34.91. H4 confirms current pressure: its close at 1.0907 sits at H4 support and already below the D1 primary support of 1.1166, showing that the shorter timeframe has moved lower than the weekly range floor. The overall setup is a bearish weekly lean with a mixed D1 close sequence.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbearishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentumnegativeRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilitystableD1 ATR change
Is XRP/USD Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The weekly bias is bearish, with the main path favoring weakness toward the 1.0819 and 1.0421 references. The base range between 1.1166 and 1.2898 remains a meaningful alternative because the reference close is still above primary support and the D1 close sequence is mixed. A bullish path needs a structural repair above primary resistance.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- One completed D1 close above the primary resistance at 1.2898 would be the first structural signal that the bearish D1 read is losing control.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 closes above the H4 resistance at 1.1986 would add tactical support to a recovery attempt, but the bullish reference targets at 1.337 and 1.3819 would still need D1 confirmation to become a meaningful path.
- Targets
- 1.337, 1.3819
- Scenario failure condition
- A rejection below the primary resistance at 1.2898 after a completed D1 close above it, or a return of H4 closes below 1.0907, would weaken the bullish path.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- Completed D1 closes that continue to alternate between the primary support at 1.1166 and the primary resistance at 1.2898 would confirm the consolidation path.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 closes oscillating between the H4 support at 1.0907 and the H4 resistance at 1.1986 would indicate short-term indecision while the D1 close remains inside its range.
- Targets
- The D1 range between 1.1166 and 1.2898, with the H4 reference range between 1.0907 and 1.1986.
- Scenario failure condition
- A completed D1 close below 1.1166 would move the range toward the bearish path, while a completed D1 close above 1.2898 would open the bullish path.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- One completed D1 close below the primary support at 1.1166 would confirm downside pressure and shift the structural focus toward the bearish reference targets at 1.0819 and 1.0421.
- H4 tactical signal
- An H4 close below the H4 support at 1.0907 would add tactical confirmation to the downside path, with the H4 close already sitting at that boundary.
- Targets
- 1.0819, 1.0421
- Scenario failure condition
- A recovery to a completed D1 close back above 1.1166 would weaken the bearish path, as would H4 closes reclaiming the H4 resistance at 1.1986.
XRP/USD D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The reference D1 close of 1.1758 sits above primary support at 1.1166 and below primary resistance at 1.2898, with the close sequence labeled mixed, so neither range boundary has been broken on a completed close. Against the trend references, the D1 close is below the EMA20 at 1.29706, SMA200 at 1.30546, EMA50 at 1.3207 and Bollinger middle at 1.29767, and it is also below the lower Bollinger band at 1.19807. The bearish read depends on whether that position persists on subsequent completed D1 closes.
H4 Tactical Triggers
The H4 close of 1.0907 equals the H4 support and is below the H4 resistance at 1.1986, so tactical price is at the floor of its short-term range. H4 closes are below the EMA20 at 1.21052, EMA50 at 1.24936, Bollinger middle at 1.23536 and lower band at 1.10486, and H4 MACD is below its signal, which confirms that short-term momentum agrees with the bearish D1 thesis. The H4 RSI at 18.43 is very low, meaning the tactical condition is stretched. That stretch is the strongest countertrend argument, since it could produce a short-term reaction toward the H4 resistance without changing the D1 weekly framework, which still controls the thesis.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
D1 is bearish with negative momentum and stable volatility, and the reference close sits inside the primary support and resistance range while below the trend references. H4 is bearish, with a deeply depressed RSI and a close at its support. The tactical weakness supports the weekly lean, while the D1 range structure keeps the setup conditional.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 11 November 2026.
- RSI34.91Neutral
- MACDBelow signalBearish
- Bollinger BandsOutside bandBelow lower band
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR5.88%Stable
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 18.43
On D1, RSI at 34.91 below 50 confirms weak momentum without an extreme reading, consistent with a trend that is bearish but not yet deeply stretched. On H4, RSI at 18.43 is very low, indicating a stretched short-term condition that could produce a countertrend reaction without altering the D1 thesis.
- D1 RSI
- 34.91
- H4 RSI
- 18.43
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bearish momentum
D1 MACD sits below its signal line with a negative histogram, which confirms bearish momentum that agrees with the trend rather than diverging from it. H4 MACD is also below its signal, and its histogram is more negative than the D1 histogram, indicating that short-term downside pressure is currently stronger on the lower timeframe.
- MACD
- -0.042087
- Signal
- -0.032104
- Histogram
- -0.009983
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Below lower band
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 close sits below both the Bollinger middle and the lower band, placing price in the lower part of the volatility envelope and consistent with bearish pressure, though band position alone does not confirm direction. On H4 the close is below the lower band as well, reinforcing short-term weakness while the H4 close also sits at support.
- Position in band
- Below lower band
- Band width
- 15.35%
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling1.32070Price is 10.97% below
- 200 SMA falling1.30546Price is 9.93% below
On D1, price is below the EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, and the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling, so the moving-average structure is aligned with the bearish trend. The EMA20 sits below both the SMA200 and EMA50, showing that the shorter average has also been pulled below the longer references. On H4, the close is below both the EMA20 and EMA50, confirming tactical alignment with the D1 thesis.
- D1 close
- 1.17580
- 50 EMA
- 1.32070
- 200 SMA
- 1.30546
ATR (14)
Stable volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
The stable volatility state suggests the environment is not currently expanding, so moves are more likely to develop at a measured pace than as abrupt range breaks, although scheduled US releases could temporarily lift volatility. ATR describes the scale of movement rather than its direction and does not change the weekly lean.
- D1 ATR
- 0.0691 (5.88%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.02919 (2.48%)
Technical conclusion: The weekly thesis is bearish and anchored on D1 structure: the close is below the EMA20, EMA50, SMA200 and Bollinger middle, MACD is negative, and RSI is below 50. The strongest supporting evidence is the alignment of moving averages and momentum. The main counterargument is that the reference close still sits above primary support at 1.1166, the close sequence is mixed, and H4 RSI at 18.43 implies stretched short-term conditions that could produce a countertrend reaction. The levels that matter next are 1.1166 for D1 structure, 1.0907 for H4 support, and 1.2898 as the level that would need to be cleared before the bearish framework is weakened.
View all live XRP/USD oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
XRP/USD Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2898 | Primary resistance | D1 | The nearest resistance above the reference close and the trigger for any bullish D1 confirmation. |
| 1.337 | Secondary resistance | D1 | The second resistance level and the first bullish reference target. |
| 1.3819 | Resistance (third level) | D1 | The upper resistance and the second bullish reference target. |
| 1.1166 | Primary support | D1 | The lower edge of the base range and the boundary whose completed-close break would confirm the bearish path. |
| 1.0819 | Secondary support | D1 | The first bearish reference target. |
| 1.0421 | Support (third level) | D1 | The second bearish reference target and the deepest D1 support supplied. |
| 1.1986 | H4 resistance | H4 | The tactical ceiling; an H4 reclaim would signal short-term repair but not a change in the D1 framework. |
| 1.0907 | H4 support | H4 | The tactical floor where the H4 close currently sits; an H4 close below it would add tactical downside confirmation. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for XRP/USD This Week
Selected events may increase XRP/USD volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core CPI y/y | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 2.6% | — |
| CPI y/y | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 3.7% | — |
| Core CPI m/m | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| CPI m/m | 10 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Core PPI m/m | 13 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT+3 | High | 0.7% | 0.3% |
Showing 5 of 8 scheduled events; high-importance events appear first.
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 09 Nov 2026 14:18 GMT+3. View the complete XRP/USD economic calendar.
XRP/USD Outlook for 9–14 November 2026
The weekly bias is bearish because D1 structure, moving-average alignment and negative momentum point in the same direction. The reference close of 1.1758 remains beneath the central trend references while still above primary support, so the framework favors continued pressure but is not yet a confirmed breakdown.
The US inflation and producer-price releases could raise volatility and test the 1.1166 and 1.2898 boundaries. The bullish path needs a completed D1 close above 1.2898, the base path describes the current range, and the bearish path requires a completed D1 close below 1.1166 before the 1.0819 and 1.0421 references come into focus.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- Mixed D1 close sequence: Mixed closes mean the bearish trend has not produced a uniform run of lower closes, so a completed D1 close below 1.1166 is still needed to confirm the downside path.
- Stretched H4 condition and countertrend reaction: H4 RSI at 18.43 and a close at H4 support of 1.0907 could produce a short-term countertrend move toward H4 resistance at 1.1986 without changing the D1 thesis.
- High-importance US inflation and producer-price releases: These releases could lift volatility and test the 1.1166 and 1.2898 boundaries, though the calendar does not indicate direction.
- Stable volatility favoring measured development: A stable volatility state suggests slower range behavior, which keeps the base scenario relevant even while D1 leans bearish.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 1.29671. One completed D1 close below 0.97859 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
XRP/USD Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is XRP/USD bullish or bearish this week?
The weekly bias is bearish. D1 structure, moving-average alignment and negative momentum all point lower, but the mixed close sequence and stable volatility mean this is a current lean rather than a settled outcome.
What scenario would strengthen for XRP/USD this week?
The primary path favors continuation toward the bearish reference levels at 1.0819 and 1.0421. Price remains between the D1 primary support and primary resistance, so a base range is a live alternative, and a bullish shift would require a completed D1 close above 1.2898.
What are the key XRP/USD support and resistance levels?
Primary support is 1.1166 and secondary support is 1.0819, with 1.0421 as the deeper support. Primary resistance is 1.2898 and secondary resistance is 1.337, with 1.3819 further above. The H4 support at 1.0907 and H4 resistance at 1.1986 frame the tactical picture.
What would invalidate this XRP/USD forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 1.29671.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (XRPUSD)
- Live quote timestamp: 11 Nov 2026 06:20 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 9 November 2026
- Chart timestamp: 11 November 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 9 November 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 09 Nov 2026 14:18 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 1.50× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.10× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
