AUD/JPY sits below its D1 moving averages with negative momentum and expanding volatility, but it remains above primary support at 108.215, so the bearish weekly case still needs a completed D1 close below that level to strengthen.
Daily check — 11 November 2026: The latest completed D1 close was 108.972 on 10 November 2026. It remains below the upper formal invalidation level 110.485; the lower calibrated boundary 107.444 is an extension/confirmation boundary. The authored weekly thesis remains valid.
AUD/JPY Weekly Forecast at a Glance
In brief
AUD/JPY carries a bearish weekly bias as the D1 close sits below its EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200 with negative momentum, though price remains above primary support at 108.215 and H4 is tactically bearish.
The weekly thesis is controlled by the daily chart, where the last D1 close at 108.587 sits below the EMA20 at 110.30905, the EMA50 at 110.83491, the SMA200 at 111.93189 and the Bollinger middle band at 110.3607. This stack of averages above price, with the EMA50 falling, gives the daily trend its bearish character. The SMA200 is still rising, so the longer-term slope has not rolled over, which makes this a short-to-intermediate weekly view rather than a call on the broader trend. Price has not broken the D1 structure: the close remains above primary support at 108.215 and below primary resistance at 110.087, so the pair is working inside a defined range rather than beneath a confirmed breakdown.
Momentum leans in the same direction as the trend. The D1 MACD at -0.253241 sits below its signal at -0.125977 with a negative histogram, and RSI at 35.02 is below the 50 midline. On H4, price is below both the EMA20 and EMA50, and the H4 MACD is below its signal, so short-term pressure is present. That tactical weakness supports the weekly bias but cannot replace D1 structure as the controlling evidence. H4 resistance at 109.465 is the nearest tactical ceiling, and a completed H4 close above it would be the first sign that short-term selling pressure is easing. Volatility is expanding on D1, which points to larger moves and faster tests of levels, but it does not indicate direction by itself. Scheduled AUD employment and wage releases fall on 18 and 19 November, after this forecast window closes.
- Bullish targets
-
- T1110.621
- T2111.279
- Bearish targets
-
- T1107.221 (projected)
- T2106.227 (projected)
- Invalidation
- One completed D1 close above 110.48450.
Selected key events
- Employment Change19 Nov 2026 03:30 GMT+3High
- Unemployment Rate19 Nov 2026 03:30 GMT+3High
- Wage Price Index q/q18 Nov 2026 03:30 GMT+3Medium
| Price at last update | 109.359 as of 11 Nov 2026 06:40 GMT+3 |
|---|---|
| Completed D1 reference close | 108.587 as of 6 November 2026 |
| Primary support | 108.215 |
| Secondary support | — |
| Primary resistance | 110.087 |
| Bullish targets | 110.621, 111.279 |
| Bearish targets | 107.221 (projected), 106.227 (projected) |
| Formal weekly thesis invalidation | Upper 110.485 — One completed D1 close above 110.485 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis. |
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AUD/JPY Fundamental Drivers This Week
Scheduled economic events relevant to AUD/JPY during 8–14 November 2026 include Wage Price Index q/q, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Scheduled | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| Wage Price Index q/q | 18 Nov 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | Medium |
| Employment Change | 19 Nov 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High |
| Unemployment Rate | 19 Nov 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High |
Current AUD/JPY Price and Weekly Market Context
The weekly structure begins on D1, where price is bearish, the close sequence is mixed, momentum is negative and volatility is expanding. Price sits above primary support at 108.215 and below primary resistance at 110.087, so the decisive question is whether a completed D1 close breaks one boundary or the other. Momentum supports the bearish tilt, and H4 is bearish too, but its tactical picture is weaker than the daily picture and is bounded by H4 support at 108.215 and H4 resistance at 109.465.
- D1 trendbearishClose vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA
- H4 tacticalbearishH4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA
- MomentumnegativeRSI and MACD histogram
- VolatilityexpandingD1 ATR change
Is AUD/JPY Bullish or Bearish This Week?
The bearish scenario is the primary weekly bias because D1 trend and momentum point lower and H4 is aligned tactically. It stays conditional: price is still inside the 108.215 to 110.087 range on D1, and the mixed close sequence means the break has not yet happened. The base scenario describes that current range state, and the bullish scenario describes a recovery that would need a D1 close above resistance.
Scenario 1 of 3Bullish reversal
- D1 confirmation
- One completed D1 close above primary resistance at 110.087 would take price out of the current range and open the bullish reference levels at 110.621 and 111.279.
- H4 tactical signal
- An H4 close above H4 resistance at 109.465 would show short-term pressure lifting ahead of any D1 confirmation.
- Targets
- 110.621, 111.279
- Scenario failure condition
- A return of D1 closes below 110.087 after an upside attempt, or an H4 failure to hold above 109.465, would weaken the recovery case and keep price inside the broader range.
Scenario 2 of 3Base / neutral
- D1 confirmation
- D1 closes continue to form between primary support at 108.215 and primary resistance at 110.087, with no completed close beyond either boundary.
- H4 tactical signal
- H4 price rotates between H4 support at 108.215 and H4 resistance at 109.465 without a clear H4 close beyond either level.
- Targets
- The range runs between 108.215 and 110.087. The bullish levels 110.621 and 111.279 and the bearish reference levels 107.221 and 106.227 are reference points outside the range rather than expected destinations.
- Scenario failure condition
- A completed D1 close beyond either 108.215 or 110.087 would move price out of the range and shift weight toward the matching directional scenario.
Scenario 3 of 3Bearish continuation
- D1 confirmation
- One completed D1 close below primary support at 108.215 would turn the current range into a structural break and open the ATR-based bearish reference targets at 107.221 and 106.227.
- H4 tactical signal
- An H4 close below H4 support at 108.215 would bring the tactical picture into line with a D1 break.
- Targets
- 107.221 (projected), 106.227 (projected)
- Scenario failure condition
- An H4 recovery back above 109.465 combined with D1 closes that return above 108.215 would weaken the continuation case and move the picture back toward the base scenario.
AUD/JPY D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers
The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the Technical page.
D1 Price Action and Market Structure
The D1 close at 108.587 sits above primary support at 108.215 and below primary resistance at 110.087. The close sequence is mixed rather than consistently lower, and price is below the D1 lower Bollinger band at 109.04752, which reflects the stretched position that accompanies expanding volatility. The most important structural evidence is that the daily range has not yet resolved.
H4 Tactical Triggers
On H4, the close at 108.587 is above H4 support at 108.215 and below H4 resistance at 109.465. The H4 EMA20 at 109.82925 and EMA50 at 110.26487 both sit above price, and the H4 MACD is below its signal at -0.284074, which confirms short-term weakness. The H4 timeframe therefore supports the weekly bias tactically but has not yet produced a break of its own support, so it adds timing evidence without becoming an independent thesis.
Technical Indicators at a Glance
Automated technical summary
The automated read is bearish on both D1 and H4, with negative momentum and expanding D1 volatility. Price is below the main D1 averages and the D1 close sequence is mixed, while the price remains inside the D1 range set by 108.215 and 110.087.
Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 11 November 2026.
- RSI35.02Neutral
- MACDBelow signalBearish
- Bollinger BandsOutside bandBelow lower band
- Moving averagesBelow bothBearish
- ATR99.4 pipsExpanding
RSI (14)
Neutral
H4 29.88
RSI is below the 50 midline on both timeframes, which confirms the bearish tilt. Low RSI readings can persist during extended declines, so they describe weakness in momentum rather than a turning point.
- D1 RSI
- 35.02
- H4 RSI
- 29.88
MACD (12, 26, 9)
Bearish momentum
MACD sits below its signal line on both D1 and H4, with negative histograms, so momentum is negative and agrees with the D1 trend. Nothing in the supplied momentum evidence shows divergence, so the momentum reading confirms rather than contradicts the bearish weekly thesis.
- MACD
- -0.253241
- Signal
- -0.125977
- Histogram
- -0.127264
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
Below lower band
Striped ends = price outside the bands.
The D1 close is below the middle band and below the lower band, which places price at the weak edge of its volatility envelope. On H4, the close is above the lower band but below the middle band, so the short-term picture is weak without being at the lower edge. Band position describes the trading environment rather than providing structural levels.
- Position in band
- 46.1 pips below lower
- Band width
- 262.6 pips (2.38%)
Moving averages (D1)
Bearish structure
- 50 EMA falling110.835Price is 224.8 pips below (-2.03%)
- 200 SMA rising111.932Price is 334.5 pips below (-2.99%)
Every D1 average sits above the close: the EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200 all lie above price. The EMA50 is falling while the SMA200 is rising, so the intermediate trend has turned lower and the long-term slope has not yet followed. H4 averages also sit above price, which keeps the short-term picture weak.
- D1 close
- 108.587
- 50 EMA
- 110.835
- 200 SMA
- 111.932
ATR (14)
Expanding volatility
One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.
D1 ATR is expanding, which means daily swings are larger and level tests may come faster. The bearish reference targets are ATR-based projections from primary support, so their distance reflects current volatility rather than a structural floor. H4 ATR is smaller, which suggests tactical moves are more contained.
- D1 ATR
- 0.99375 (0.92%)
- H4 ATR
- 0.51236 (0.47%)
Technical conclusion: The weekly thesis is bearish, anchored by D1 trend, D1 momentum and the H4 tactical state. The strongest supporting evidence is that every D1 average sits above price and momentum is negative on both timeframes. The strongest counterargument is that the D1 close sequence is mixed, the rising SMA200 shows the longer-term slope has not turned, and price has not closed below primary support. The levels that matter next are 108.215 on the downside and 110.087 on the upside, with H4 resistance at 109.465 as the first tactical checkpoint.
View all live AUD/JPY oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals.
AUD/JPY Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation
| Level | Role | Timeframe | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 108.215 | Primary support | D1 and H4 | Shared by D1 and H4. A completed D1 close below it is the structural bearish trigger, and price currently sits above it. |
| 110.087 | Primary resistance | D1 | Upper edge of the current D1 range and the structural bullish trigger on a completed D1 close. |
| 110.621 | Secondary resistance and bullish target | D1 | The first bullish reference above primary resistance and the next level to watch after a D1 break higher. |
| 111.279 | Bullish target | D1 | The furthest bullish reference level, sitting above primary resistance. |
| 109.465 | H4 resistance | H4 | The nearest tactical ceiling. An H4 close above it would be the tactical bullish trigger. |
| 107.221 | Projected ATR-based bearish reference target | D1 | The first bearish projection, derived from ATR below primary support rather than from a structural level. |
| 106.227 | Projected ATR-based bearish reference target | D1 | The second bearish projection, further below primary support and also ATR-based. |
| 110.4845 | Formal upper boundary | D1 | The upper boundary of this forecast. One completed D1 close above it would move the structure against the bearish thesis. |
| 107.44419 | Formal lower boundary | D1 | The lower boundary of this forecast, sitting between primary support and the first projected bearish reference. |
These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the Technical page.
Economic News & Events to Watch for AUD/JPY This Week
Selected events may increase AUD/JPY volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.
Scroll table sideways for more columns →
| Event | Date and time | Importance | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment Change | 19 Nov 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| Unemployment Rate | 19 Nov 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | High | — | — |
| Wage Price Index q/q | 18 Nov 2026 03:30 GMT+3 | Medium | — | — |
Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 08 Nov 2026 17:07 GMT+3. View the complete AUD/JPY economic calendar.
AUD/JPY Outlook for 8–14 November 2026
The weekly bias is bearish because the daily trend, daily momentum and H4 tactical state all lean lower, and every D1 average sits above price. That bias is conditional, not certain: price has not closed below primary support at 108.215, and the mixed D1 close sequence leaves the range unresolved. The weekly framework therefore turns on whether a completed D1 close breaks 108.215 to the downside or 110.087 to the upside.
Volatility is expanding, which points to faster level tests and larger moves but does not decide direction. The scheduled AUD employment and wage releases fall after this window, so they bear on the following week rather than changing the current framework. Until a D1 boundary is decisively crossed on a completed close, the bearish thesis remains the primary bias with the range as the current state.
Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook
- Range persistence: Price remains between 108.215 and 110.087 with a mixed D1 close sequence. Continued range trading would delay any decisive structural break and keep the bearish bias unconfirmed.
- Long-term slope conflict: The SMA200 is rising while price sits below it and the EMA50 is falling. This mixed signal means the broader trend has not fully turned, which limits how far the short-term bearish view can be stretched.
- Volatility expansion: Expanding D1 volatility can produce sharp moves in either direction, so level tests may arrive quickly and reverse just as fast. It does not indicate direction on its own.
Formal weekly invalidation: The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 110.48450. One completed D1 close below 107.44419 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.
AUD/JPY Weekly Forecast FAQs
Is AUD/JPY bullish or bearish this week?
The bias for 8–14 November 2026 is bearish because the D1 trend, D1 momentum and H4 tactical state all point lower while price remains below the main D1 averages. The bias is not a certainty: the D1 close sequence is mixed and price has not closed below primary support.
What scenario would strengthen for AUD/JPY this week?
The main bearish scenario requires a completed D1 close below 108.215, which would open the projected ATR-based reference targets at 107.221 and 106.227. The alternatives are consolidation inside the 108.215 to 110.087 range or a bullish recovery toward 110.621 and 111.279 after a completed D1 close above 110.087.
What are the key AUD/JPY support and resistance levels?
Primary support is 108.215 and primary resistance is 110.087, with secondary resistance at 110.621. The bearish reference targets at 107.221 and 106.227 are ATR-based projections below primary support, and the bullish targets at 110.621 and 111.279 sit above primary resistance.
What would invalidate this AUD/JPY forecast?
The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 110.48450.
Methodology, Data and Sources
- Price-data source: FXGlory price feed (AUDJPY)
- Live quote timestamp: 11 Nov 2026 06:40 GMT+3
- Weekly analysis timestamp: 8 November 2026
- Chart timestamp: 11 November 2026 (redrawn daily)
- Daily check: Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.
- Technical snapshot timestamp: 8 November 2026
- Calendar-data source: FXGlory economic calendar
- Calendar retrieval timestamp: 08 Nov 2026 17:07 GMT+3
- Candle convention: FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.
- Indicator settings: D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI/MACD/Bollinger/EMA/ATR.
- Level-selection method: Weekly D1 support/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 0.75× D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.40× D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.
- Weekly forecast method: D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation/warning only.
