{"id":54833,"date":"2026-10-12T17:11:33","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T13:11:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/market\/market\/analysis\/aud-jpy-forecast-2026-10-12\/"},"modified":"2026-10-23T18:31:07","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T14:31:07","slug":"aud-jpy-forecast-2026-10-12","status":"publish","type":"market_article","link":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/aud-jpy\/forecast\/aud-jpy-forecast-2026-10-12\/","title":{"rendered":"AUD\/JPY Weekly Forecast: 12\u201317 October 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fxch-forecast-article\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-content\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-header\">\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-dek\">The D1 structure remains bearish, but mixed momentum and bullish H4 conditions leave the weekly outlook exposed to consolidation and countertrend pressure.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-status fxch-forecast-status--superseded\" role=\"status\"><strong>Superseded forecast:<\/strong> A newer weekly outlook is available. <a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/aud-jpy\/forecast\/?fxch_latest=1&#038;from=54833\">Read the latest AUD\/JPY forecast<\/a>.<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card\">\n<figure class=\"ce-content-image fxch-forecast-article-figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1680\" height=\"960\" src=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/audjpy-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-1680x960.png\" class=\"ce-lightbox-trigger\" alt=\"AUD\/JPY D1 technical analysis chart\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"Open AUD\/JPY technical chart\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-full-src=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/audjpy-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026.png\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/audjpy-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-1680x960.png 1680w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/audjpy-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/audjpy-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-1024x585.png 1024w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/audjpy-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-768x439.png 768w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/audjpy-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-1536x878.png 1536w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/audjpy-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-2048x1170.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1680px) 100vw, 1680px\" \/><figcaption>AUD\/JPY D1 technical-analysis context for the weekly forecast. Chart data captured 16 October 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<aside class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__panel\" aria-label=\"AUD\/JPY weekly forecast summary\">\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__kicker\">Weekly forecast<\/p>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__pair\">AUD\/JPY<\/p>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__range\">12\u201317 Oct 2026<\/p>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__bias fxch-forecast-chart-card__bias--negative\"><span>Bias<\/span> Bearish<\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__latest\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__label\">Price at last update<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__price\">110.149<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__time\">Updated 23 Oct 2026 20:25 GMT+3<\/span><\/div>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__levels\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__level--support\">\n<dt>Support<\/dt>\n<dd>109.750<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__level--resistance\">\n<dt>Resistance<\/dt>\n<dd>111.448<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<section id=\"weekly-at-a-glance\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>AUD\/JPY Weekly Forecast at a Glance<\/h2>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-grid\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card fxch-forecast-summary-card--price\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__label\">Price at last update<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__value\">110.149<\/strong><small class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__note\">Updated 23 Oct 2026 20:25 GMT+3<\/small><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card fxch-forecast-summary-card--bias fxch-forecast-summary-card--bias-negative\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__label\">Weekly bias<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__value\">Bearish<\/strong><small class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__note\">The bearish weekly view is led by the D1 trend and moving-average structure, while mixed momentum and bullish H4 conditions reduce directional clarity.<\/small><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card fxch-forecast-summary-card--timeframe\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__label\">Primary timeframe<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__value\">D1<\/strong><small class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__note\">Controls the weekly thesis<\/small><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card fxch-forecast-summary-card--timeframe\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__label\">Tactical timeframe<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__value\">H4<\/strong><small class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__note\">Confirmation and warning signals<\/small><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card fxch-forecast-summary-card--validity\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__label\">Validity<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__value\">12\u201317 Oct 2026<\/strong><small class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__note\">Through 17 October 2026<\/small><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-answer\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__head\">\n<h3><svg class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__icon\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.7\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M14 3H6a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v14a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h12a2 2 0 0 0 2-2V9z\"\/><path d=\"M14 3v6h6M8 13h8M8 17h5\"\/><\/svg>In brief<\/h3>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__badges\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__status\">Superseded<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__pair\">AUD\/JPY<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__summary\">\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__thesis\">AUD\/JPY has a bearish weekly bias as D1 structure remains weak, although bullish H4 momentum and mixed D1 signals leave room for consolidation or countertrend strength.<\/p>\n<p>The weekly thesis is governed by the bearish D1 trend, with the reference close at 110.521 below the D1 EMA20 at 110.59703, EMA50 at 111.4479 and SMA200 at 111.54049. The falling EMA50 slope reinforces the softer structural backdrop, while the mixed close sequence prevents the bearish case from being treated as one-directional.<\/p>\n<p>Momentum is mixed rather than uniformly negative: the D1 MACD remains below its signal line, but its histogram is positive, while H4 momentum is bullish and H4 price is above its short moving averages. That tactical strength can support consolidation or a recovery toward the resistance framework, but the D1 trend remains the controlling weekly reference unless price reaches the formal upper boundary.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-brief\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-brief__row\">\n<dt>Bullish targets<\/dt>\n<dd>\n<ol class=\"fxch-forecast-brief__targets fxch-forecast-positive\">\n<li><span>T1<\/span><strong>111.974<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><span>T2<\/span><strong>112.597<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-brief__row\">\n<dt>Bearish targets<\/dt>\n<dd>\n<ol class=\"fxch-forecast-brief__targets fxch-forecast-negative\">\n<li><span>T1<\/span><strong>109.212<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><span>T2<\/span><strong>108.763<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-brief__row fxch-forecast-brief__row--invalidation\">\n<dt>Invalidation<\/dt>\n<dd>One completed D1 close above <strong>111.79108<\/strong>.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-table-wrap\">\n<table>\n<caption>AUD\/JPY weekly forecast figures<\/caption>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Price at last update<\/th>\n<td>110.149 as of 23 Oct 2026 20:25 GMT+3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Completed D1 reference close<\/th>\n<td>110.521 as of 9 October 2026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Primary support<\/th>\n<td>109.750<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Secondary support<\/th>\n<td>109.212<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Primary resistance<\/th>\n<td>111.448<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Bullish targets<\/th>\n<td>111.974, 112.597<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Bearish targets<\/th>\n<td>109.212, 108.763<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Formal weekly thesis invalidation<\/th>\n<td>Upper 111.791 \u2014 One completed D1 close above 111.791 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"live-tools\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>Live AUD\/JPY Tools<\/h2>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-tools\">\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__lede\">A forecast is a snapshot. These pages keep moving with the market.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__grid\" role=\"list\">\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__card fxch-forecast-tools__card--wide fxch-forecast-tools__card--featured\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__live\">Live<\/span><br \/>\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/aud-jpy\/\">Live chart &amp; price<\/a><\/h3>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__desc\">Watch AUD\/JPY move tick by tick. Flip from the 1-minute chart to the monthly, with trading conditions right alongside.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__cta\" aria-hidden=\"true\">Open the live chart <svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M5 12h14M13 6l6 6-6 6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__art\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 400 72\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" focusable=\"false\"><path class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__art-fill\" d=\"M0 52 28 46 52 55 84 38 112 44 140 30 172 40 204 24 236 33 268 18 300 27 332 12 364 20 388 8H400V72H0Z\"\/><path class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__art-line\" d=\"M0 52 28 46 52 55 84 38 112 44 140 30 172 40 204 24 236 33 268 18 300 27 332 12 364 20 388 8\"\/><\/svg><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__art-dot\"><\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__card fxch-forecast-tools__card--wide\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__live\">Live<\/span><br \/>\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/aud-jpy\/technical\/\">Technical signals<\/a><\/h3>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__desc\">Buy, sell or sit it out? Oscillators, moving averages and pivot points boiled down to one clear reading, updated live.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__cta\" aria-hidden=\"true\">See today&#039;s signals <svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M5 12h14M13 6l6 6-6 6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__art\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__art-bars\" viewBox=\"3 0 400 72\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" focusable=\"false\"><rect x=\"8\" y=\"30\" width=\"10\" height=\"12\"\/><rect x=\"28\" y=\"24\" width=\"10\" height=\"18\"\/><rect x=\"48\" y=\"16\" width=\"10\" height=\"26\"\/><rect x=\"68\" y=\"22\" width=\"10\" height=\"20\"\/><rect x=\"88\" y=\"32\" width=\"10\" height=\"10\"\/><rect x=\"108\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"8\"\/><rect x=\"128\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"16\"\/><rect x=\"148\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"22\"\/><rect x=\"168\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"14\"\/><rect x=\"188\" y=\"36\" width=\"10\" height=\"6\"\/><rect x=\"208\" y=\"26\" width=\"10\" height=\"16\"\/><rect x=\"228\" y=\"14\" width=\"10\" height=\"28\"\/><rect x=\"248\" y=\"8\" width=\"10\" height=\"34\"\/><rect x=\"268\" y=\"18\" width=\"10\" height=\"24\"\/><rect x=\"288\" y=\"30\" width=\"10\" height=\"12\"\/><rect x=\"308\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"10\"\/><rect x=\"328\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"18\"\/><rect x=\"348\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"9\"\/><rect x=\"368\" y=\"28\" width=\"10\" height=\"14\"\/><rect x=\"388\" y=\"18\" width=\"10\" height=\"24\"\/><\/svg><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__card\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><rect x=\"3\" y=\"4\" width=\"18\" height=\"17\" rx=\"2\"\/><path d=\"M8 2v4M16 2v4M3 10h18M8 15h2M14 15h2\"\/><\/svg><\/span><br \/>\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/aud-jpy\/economic-calendar\/\">Economic calendar<\/a><\/h3>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__desc\">Know what&#039;s coming before it hits the price: every scheduled release with impact, forecast and actual.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__cta\" aria-hidden=\"true\">Check the calendar <svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M5 12h14M13 6l6 6-6 6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__card\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 3v16a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h16M9 5v4M9 15v2M17 3v2M17 13v3\"\/><rect x=\"7\" y=\"9\" width=\"4\" height=\"6\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect x=\"15\" y=\"5\" width=\"4\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg><\/span><br \/>\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/aud-jpy\/historical-data\/\">Historical data<\/a><\/h3>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__desc\">Open, high, low and close on any timeframe from 1 minute to monthly. Test your idea, then download the data.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__cta\" aria-hidden=\"true\">Browse the history <svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M5 12h14M13 6l6 6-6 6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__card\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"12\" r=\"9.5\"\/><path d=\"m16.24 7.76-2.12 6.36-6.36 2.12 2.12-6.36z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><br \/>\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/aud-jpy\/forecast\/\">All AUD\/JPY forecasts<\/a><\/h3>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__desc\">Every weekly outlook in one place. Scroll back to see how earlier calls played out against the chart.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__cta\" aria-hidden=\"true\">Read past forecasts <svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M5 12h14M13 6l6 6-6 6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"fundamental-drivers\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>AUD\/JPY Fundamental Drivers This Week<\/h2>\n<p>No scheduled events were provided for this forecast, so the weekly assessment is driven by the D1 structure, momentum, H4 tactical condition and supplied levels.<\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-table-wrap fxch-forecast-drivers\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"col\">Driver<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Forecast relevance<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Scheduled-event availability<\/th>\n<td>No events were supplied for the forecast period.<\/td>\n<td>There is no listed event catalyst to add a separate timing or repricing consideration to the technical framework.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"market-context\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>Current AUD\/JPY Price and Weekly Market Context<\/h2>\n<p>AUD\/JPY is positioned between the primary support at 109.75 and primary resistance at 111.4479, with the D1 trend bearish but the H4 tactical state bullish. The reference D1 close at 110.521 sits below the D1 EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, while H4 price action is supported by bullish H4 momentum and moving-average positioning. This creates a bearish weekly structure with a meaningful short-term countertrend component.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-states\" role=\"list\">\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-state fxch-forecast-state--negative\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 7l6 6 4-4 8 8\"\/><path d=\"M15 17h6v-6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__label\">D1 trend<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-state__value\">bearish<\/strong><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__basis\">Close vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-state fxch-forecast-state--positive\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 17l6-6 4 4 8-8\"\/><path d=\"M15 7h6v6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__label\">H4 tactical<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-state__value\">bullish<\/strong><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__basis\">H4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-state fxch-forecast-state--neutral\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M7 20V4\"\/><path d=\"M3 8l4-4 4 4\"\/><path d=\"M17 4v16\"\/><path d=\"M13 16l4 4 4-4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__label\">Momentum<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-state__value\">mixed<\/strong><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__basis\">RSI and MACD histogram<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-state\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 9h16\"\/><path d=\"M4 15h16\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__label\">Volatility<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-state__value\">stable<\/strong><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__basis\">D1 ATR change<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"scenarios\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>Is AUD\/JPY Bullish or Bearish This Week?<\/h2>\n<p>The bearish scenario has the strongest structural support because D1 trend and moving-average evidence remain weak. The base scenario is consolidation between the supplied weekly levels, reflecting mixed D1 price action and bullish H4 momentum. A bullish alternative would require stronger D1 confirmation above the formal upper boundary; without that development, H4 strength remains tactical rather than a replacement for the D1 thesis.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-nav\" role=\"list\" aria-label=\"Jump to a scenario\">\n<li><a class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-tone--bullish\" href=\"#scenario-bullish\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 17l6-6 4 4 6-7\"\/><path d=\"M15 8h5v5\"\/><\/svg>Bullish reversal<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-tone--base\" href=\"#scenario-base\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 12h16\"\/><path d=\"M8 8l-4 4 4 4\"\/><path d=\"M16 8l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg>Base \/ neutral<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-tone--bearish\" href=\"#scenario-bearish\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 7l6 6 4-4 6 7\"\/><path d=\"M15 16h5v-5\"\/><\/svg>Bearish continuation<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenarios\">\n<section id=\"scenario-bullish\" class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card fxch-forecast-scenario-tone--bullish\" aria-labelledby=\"scenario-bullish-title\">\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__head\" id=\"scenario-bullish-title\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__icon\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 17l6-6 4 4 6-7\"\/><path d=\"M15 8h5v5\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__eyebrow\">Scenario 1 of 3<\/span>Bullish reversal<\/span><\/h3>\n<dl>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row\">\n<dt>D1 confirmation<\/dt>\n<dd>A bullish weekly shift would require one completed D1 close above 111.79108, which would move price beyond the formal upper boundary of the bearish framework.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row\">\n<dt>H4 tactical signal<\/dt>\n<dd>H4 bullish follow-through above its supplied resistance at 110.535 would strengthen the countertrend case and keep the 111.4479 and 111.974 resistance references in focus.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row--targets\">\n<dt>Targets<\/dt>\n<dd>111.974, 112.597<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row--failure\">\n<dt>Scenario failure condition<\/dt>\n<dd>The bullish alternative would lose force if H4 strength fades and D1 price remains below the resistance framework, particularly if the market returns toward 109.75.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"scenario-base\" class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card fxch-forecast-scenario-tone--base\" aria-labelledby=\"scenario-base-title\">\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__head\" id=\"scenario-base-title\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__icon\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 12h16\"\/><path d=\"M8 8l-4 4 4 4\"\/><path d=\"M16 8l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__eyebrow\">Scenario 2 of 3<\/span>Base \/ neutral<\/span><\/h3>\n<dl>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row\">\n<dt>D1 confirmation<\/dt>\n<dd>A mixed D1 close sequence with price remaining between 109.75 and 111.4479 would support a consolidation interpretation rather than a decisive directional resolution.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row\">\n<dt>H4 tactical signal<\/dt>\n<dd>The base case is supported if bullish H4 momentum persists without producing the completed D1 close required above 111.79108.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row--targets\">\n<dt>Targets<\/dt>\n<dd>The neutral path is a two-sided interaction with the supplied range bounded by 109.75 support and 111.4479 resistance, with 111.974 as the next resistance reference if the upper side is tested.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row--failure\">\n<dt>Scenario failure condition<\/dt>\n<dd>The consolidation case would weaken if a completed D1 close establishes a clear move beyond either the formal upper boundary at 111.79108 or the formal lower boundary at 109.40682.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"scenario-bearish\" class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card fxch-forecast-scenario-tone--bearish\" aria-labelledby=\"scenario-bearish-title\">\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__head\" id=\"scenario-bearish-title\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__icon\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 7l6 6 4-4 6 7\"\/><path d=\"M15 16h5v-5\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__eyebrow\">Scenario 3 of 3<\/span>Bearish continuation<\/span><\/h3>\n<dl>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row\">\n<dt>D1 confirmation<\/dt>\n<dd>A completed D1 close below primary support at 109.75 would strengthen the bearish structural reading and place the lower references at 109.212 and 108.763 into focus.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row\">\n<dt>H4 tactical signal<\/dt>\n<dd>H4 loss of its tactical support at 110.508 would reduce the current countertrend support and make the D1-led downside case more immediate, subject to D1 confirmation.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row--targets\">\n<dt>Targets<\/dt>\n<dd>109.212, 108.763<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row--failure\">\n<dt>Scenario failure condition<\/dt>\n<dd>The bearish scenario would be materially weakened by a completed D1 close above 111.79108, especially if H4 bullish momentum continues to support the move.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-callout fxch-forecast-callout--neutral\"><strong>Conditional interpretation:<\/strong> The evidence hierarchy favors the bearish scenario because D1 controls the weekly thesis, but the bullish H4 state and mixed momentum leave a consolidation or recovery path open. The scenarios should therefore be distinguished by completed D1 closes and interaction with the supplied levels rather than by H4 movement alone.<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"technical-analysis\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>AUD\/JPY D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers<\/h2>\n<p>The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the <a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/aud-jpy\/technical\/\">Technical page<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"ce-content-image fxch-forecast-article-figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1680\" height=\"960\" src=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/audjpy-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-1680x960.png\" class=\"ce-lightbox-trigger\" alt=\"AUD\/JPY D1 technical analysis chart\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"Open AUD\/JPY technical chart\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-full-src=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/audjpy-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026.png\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/audjpy-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-1680x960.png 1680w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/audjpy-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/audjpy-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-1024x585.png 1024w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/audjpy-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-768x439.png 768w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/audjpy-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-1536x878.png 1536w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/audjpy-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-2048x1170.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1680px) 100vw, 1680px\" \/><figcaption>AUD\/JPY D1 technical-analysis context for the weekly forecast. Chart data captured 16 October 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3>D1 Price Action and Market Structure<\/h3>\n<p>The D1 close sequence is mixed, so the bearish trend is not expressed through a uniformly directional sequence. The reference close at 110.521 is below the EMA20 at 110.59703, EMA50 at 111.4479 and SMA200 at 111.54049, while the falling EMA50 slope supports the broader weak structure. The rising SMA200 slope is a conflicting longer-term input and limits the strength of the bearish interpretation.<\/p>\n<h3>H4 Tactical Triggers<\/h3>\n<p>H4 is bullish and provides the clearest countertrend evidence to the D1 thesis. Its reference close at 110.519 is above the EMA20 at 110.25799 and EMA50 at 110.2052, with H4 MACD and histogram both positive. H4 price is also above its middle Bollinger reference at 110.16895, but the timeframe remains tactical: this strength can delay or complicate D1 weakness without independently redefining the weekly trend.<\/p>\n<h3>Technical Indicators at a Glance<\/h3>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-techsum\">\n<div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-techsum__eyebrow\">Automated technical summary<\/p>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-techsum__text\">The technical picture is structurally bearish on D1 but tactically bullish on H4. D1 price is below its EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, while H4 price is above its short moving averages. D1 MACD remains below its signal line, but its positive histogram and the bullish H4 MACD produce mixed momentum. Stable volatility indicates a comparatively consistent movement environment rather than a directional signal.<\/p>\n<p><small class=\"fxch-forecast-techsum__meta\">Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 16 October 2026.<\/small><\/div>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-signals\" role=\"list\" aria-label=\"Indicator signals\">\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__name\">RSI<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__value\">46.57<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--neutral\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 12h16\"\/><path d=\"M16 8l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg>Neutral<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__name\">MACD<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__value\">Above signal<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--positive\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 17l6-6 4 4 8-8\"\/><path d=\"M15 7h6v6\"\/><\/svg>Bullish<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__name\">Bollinger Bands<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__value\">49% of band<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--neutral\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 12h16\"\/><path d=\"M16 8l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg>Lower half<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__name\">Moving averages<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__value\">Below both<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--negative\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 7l6 6 4-4 8 8\"\/><path d=\"M15 17h6v-6\"\/><\/svg>Bearish<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__name\">ATR<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__value\">85.8 pips<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 9h16\"\/><path d=\"M4 15h16\"\/><\/svg>Stable<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator-grid\">\n<article class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__head\">\n<h4 class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__title\">RSI <span>(14)<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--neutral\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 12h16\"\/><path d=\"M16 8l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg>Neutral<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"RSI on a 0 to 100 scale. D1 is 46.57 (neutral) and H4 is 61.01 (neutral). Oversold is below 30 and overbought is above 70.\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__pin\" style=\"--pos:46.6%\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__label\">D1 <b>46.57<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__track\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone fxch-forecast-gauge__zone--alert\" style=\"width:30%\">Oversold<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone\" style=\"width:40%\">Neutral 30\u201370<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone fxch-forecast-gauge__zone--alert\" style=\"width:30%\">Overbought<\/span><\/div>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__pin fxch-forecast-gauge__pin--below\" style=\"--pos:61%\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__label\">H4 <b>61.01<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__text\">RSI readings reinforce the timeframe split rather than provide a unified directional signal. D1 RSI at 46.57 is below the midpoint, consistent with restrained momentum within the bearish structure, while H4 RSI at 61.01 shows stronger tactical momentum in the opposite direction.<\/p>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__values\">\n<div>\n<dt>D1 RSI<\/dt>\n<dd>46.57<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>H4 RSI<\/dt>\n<dd>61.01<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__head\">\n<h4 class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__title\">MACD <span>(12, 26, 9)<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--positive\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 17l6-6 4 4 8-8\"\/><path d=\"M15 7h6v6\"\/><\/svg>Bullish momentum<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-macd\">\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__legend\" role=\"list\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__key\"><\/span>MACD<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__key fxch-forecast-macd__key--signal\"><\/span>Signal<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__key fxch-forecast-macd__key--hist\"><\/span>Histogram + \/ \u2212<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__plot\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__zero\" aria-hidden=\"true\">0<\/span><svg viewBox=\"0 0 300 120\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" aria-label=\"D1 MACD over the last 30 sessions. The MACD line at -0.536687 is above its signal line at -0.592412, with the histogram at 0.055725.\"><line class=\"is-zero\" x1=\"0\" x2=\"300\" y1=\"60\" y2=\"60\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"1.5\" y=\"43.3\" width=\"7\" height=\"16.7\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"11.5\" y=\"46\" width=\"7\" height=\"14\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"21.5\" y=\"51.9\" width=\"7\" height=\"8.1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"31.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"4\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"41.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"9.8\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"51.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"18.7\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"61.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"24.9\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"71.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"29\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"81.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"31.6\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"91.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"33.5\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"101.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"32.5\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"111.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"28\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"121.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"22.7\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"131.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"17.2\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"141.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"8.7\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"151.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"161.5\" y=\"55.9\" width=\"7\" height=\"4.1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"171.5\" y=\"55.2\" width=\"7\" height=\"4.8\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"181.5\" y=\"55\" width=\"7\" height=\"5\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"191.5\" y=\"59.3\" width=\"7\" height=\"1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"201.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"1.7\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"211.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"5.7\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"221.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"10\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"231.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"11\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"241.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"9.4\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"251.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"6.1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"261.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"1.8\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"271.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"281.5\" y=\"59.8\" width=\"7\" height=\"1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos is-latest\" x=\"291.5\" y=\"55.7\" width=\"7\" height=\"4.3\" rx=\"1\"\/><polyline class=\"is-signal\" points=\"5,38.6 15,35.1 25,33.1 35,34.1 45,36.5 55,41.2 65,47.5 75,54.7 85,62.6 95,71 105,79.1 115,86.1 125,91.8 135,96.1 145,98.3 155,98.5 165,97.5 175,96.3 185,95 195,94.9 205,95.3 215,96.7 225,99.2 235,102 245,104.3 255,105.9 265,106.3 275,106.4 285,106.3 295,105.2\"\/><polyline class=\"is-macd\" points=\"5,22 15,21.2 25,25 35,38.1 45,46.3 55,59.9 65,72.4 75,83.8 85,94.2 95,104.5 105,111.6 115,114.1 125,114.5 135,113.3 145,107 155,99.5 165,93.4 175,91.5 185,90 195,94.2 205,97.1 215,102.4 225,109.3 235,112.9 245,113.7 255,112 265,108.2 275,106.5 285,106.1 295,101\"\/><\/svg><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__axis\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span>30 D1 sessions ago<\/span><span>Latest<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__text\">D1 MACD remains below its signal line, which supports the weaker D1 backdrop, but the positive D1 histogram indicates that downside momentum is not accelerating uniformly. H4 MACD is above its signal line with a positive histogram, confirming the short-term countertrend pressure.<\/p>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__values\">\n<div>\n<dt>MACD<\/dt>\n<dd>-0.536687<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>Signal<\/dt>\n<dd>-0.592412<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>Histogram<\/dt>\n<dd>0.055725<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__head\">\n<h4 class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__title\">Bollinger Bands <span>(20, 2\u03c3)<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--neutral\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 12h16\"\/><path d=\"M16 8l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg>Lower half<\/span><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge fxch-forecast-gauge--ticks\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Latest D1 close 110.521 sits inside the Bollinger Bands, 49% of the way from the lower band at 109.017 to the upper band at 112.081.\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__pin\" style=\"--pos:49.4%\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__label\">Close <b>110.521<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__track\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone fxch-forecast-gauge__zone--outside\" style=\"width:15%\"><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone\" style=\"width:35%\">Lower half<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone\" style=\"width:35%\">Upper half<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone fxch-forecast-gauge__zone--outside\" style=\"width:15%\"><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__ticks\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__tick\" style=\"--pos:15%\">Lower<b>109.017<\/b><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__tick\" style=\"--pos:50%\">Middle<b>110.549<\/b><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__tick\" style=\"--pos:85%\">Upper<b>112.081<\/b><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__caption\">Striped ends = price outside the bands.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__text\">The D1 reference close at 110.521 is near the D1 Bollinger middle value of 110.5493 and below the upper value of 112.08131, while H4 price at 110.519 is above the H4 middle value of 110.16895 and below the upper value of 110.67901. This supports a mixed structure with room for tactical movement but no standalone directional conclusion from volatility bands.<\/p>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__values\">\n<div>\n<dt>Position in band<\/dt>\n<dd>49%<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>Band width<\/dt>\n<dd>306.4 pips (2.77%)<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__head\">\n<h4 class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__title\">Moving averages <span>(D1)<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--negative\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 7l6 6 4-4 8 8\"\/><path d=\"M15 17h6v-6\"\/><\/svg>Bearish structure<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__axis\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span>Price below average<\/span><span>Price above average<\/span><\/div>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-ma\" role=\"list\">\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__row\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__name\">50 EMA <span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__slope\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 7l6 6 4-4 8 8\"\/><path d=\"M15 17h6v-6\"\/><\/svg>falling<\/span><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__value\">111.448<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__fill fxch-forecast-ma__fill--below\" style=\"--w:72.8%\"><\/span><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__dist\">Price is <b>92.7 pips below<\/b> (-0.83%)<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__row\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__name\">200 SMA <span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__slope\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 17l6-6 4 4 8-8\"\/><path d=\"M15 7h6v6\"\/><\/svg>rising<\/span><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__value\">111.540<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__fill fxch-forecast-ma__fill--below\" style=\"--w:80%\"><\/span><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__dist\">Price is <b>101.9 pips below<\/b> (-0.91%)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__text\">Moving averages provide the strongest structural support for the bearish D1 thesis: the reference close is below the EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, and the EMA50 slope is falling. The rising SMA200 slope is a counterweight, while H4 price above both H4 short moving averages explains the tactical bullish condition.<\/p>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__values\">\n<div>\n<dt>D1 close<\/dt>\n<dd>110.521<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>50 EMA<\/dt>\n<dd>111.448<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>200 SMA<\/dt>\n<dd>111.540<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator fxch-forecast-indicator--wide\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__head\">\n<h4 class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__title\">ATR <span>(14)<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 9h16\"\/><path d=\"M4 15h16\"\/><\/svg>Stable volatility<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__split\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-range\" style=\"--gutter:9ch\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Typical move size around the latest close of 110.521. One D1 ATR is 85.8 pips, spanning 109.663 to 111.379. One H4 ATR is 28.3 pips, spanning 110.238 to 110.804.\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__close\">Close <b>110.521<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<div><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__cap\">Typical 1-day move <b>\u00b185.8 pips<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-range__bar\" style=\"--w:1\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__lo\">109.663<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__hi\">111.379<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__cap\">Typical 4-hour move <b>\u00b128.3 pips<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-range__bar fxch-forecast-range__bar--h4\" style=\"--w:0.33\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__lo\">110.238<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__hi\">110.804<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__caption\">One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__text\">Stable volatility suggests that the weekly environment is not being characterized by a supplied volatility expansion or contraction signal. ATR therefore informs the movement context rather than choosing direction; the structural decision remains dependent on D1 price action around the supplied levels.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__values\">\n<div>\n<dt>D1 ATR<\/dt>\n<dd>0.85795 (0.78%)<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>H4 ATR<\/dt>\n<dd>0.28283 (0.26%)<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>Technical conclusion:<\/strong> The main thesis remains D1-led bearishness, supported by the close below the D1 moving averages, falling EMA50 slope and D1 MACD remaining below its signal. The strongest counterargument is the bullish H4 configuration, reinforced by H4 RSI at 61.01 and positive H4 MACD structure. Primary support at 109.75 and primary resistance at 111.4479 frame the immediate weekly contest, while 111.79108 is the formal upper boundary for the bearish view.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/aud-jpy\/technical\/\">View all live AUD\/JPY oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"levels\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>AUD\/JPY Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation<\/h2>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-table-wrap fxch-forecast-levels\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Timeframe<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Why it matters<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>109.75<\/td>\n<td>Primary support<\/td>\n<td>D1<\/td>\n<td>A completed D1 close below this level would strengthen the bearish structure and bring the lower reference levels into focus.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>109.212<\/td>\n<td>Secondary support and bearish reference target<\/td>\n<td>D1<\/td>\n<td>It is the next supplied downside level below primary support and one of the permitted bearish reference targets.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>111.4479<\/td>\n<td>Primary resistance<\/td>\n<td>D1<\/td>\n<td>It is both a supplied resistance level and the D1 EMA50 value, making it an important barrier for any countertrend recovery.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>111.974<\/td>\n<td>Secondary resistance and bullish reference target<\/td>\n<td>D1<\/td>\n<td>It is the next supplied upside reference beyond primary resistance and a permitted bullish reference target.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>110.508<\/td>\n<td>H4 support<\/td>\n<td>H4<\/td>\n<td>This tactical level is close to the H4 reference close and helps assess whether current short-term bullish pressure is being retained.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>110.535<\/td>\n<td>H4 resistance<\/td>\n<td>H4<\/td>\n<td>H4 follow-through above this supplied level would strengthen the tactical countertrend case, while D1 remains controlling.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the <a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/aud-jpy\/technical\/\">Technical page<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"events\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>Economic News &amp; Events to Watch for AUD\/JPY This Week<\/h2>\n<p>No scheduled events available for this period.<\/p>\n<p>Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 12 Oct 2026 16:11 GMT+3. <a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/aud-jpy\/economic-calendar\/\">View the complete AUD\/JPY economic calendar<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>AUD\/JPY Outlook for 12\u201317 October 2026<\/h2>\n<p>AUD\/JPY enters the forecast period with a bearish D1 framework but a bullish H4 tactical condition. The D1 close below its EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, together with the falling EMA50 slope, outweighs the shorter-term H4 strength for the weekly classification, although the mixed close sequence and momentum prevent a one-sided reading.<\/p>\n<p>The key distinction is whether tactical H4 strength develops into a completed D1 move above the formal upper boundary at 111.79108, or whether price instead loses primary support at 109.75 and exposes the supplied bearish references at 109.212 and 108.763. With no scheduled events supplied, level interaction and timeframe alignment remain the main analytical tests.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"risks\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook<\/h2>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-callout fxch-forecast-callout--risk\"><strong>Main forecast risk:<\/strong> The main risk to the bearish weekly view is the disagreement between the controlling D1 structure and bullish H4 momentum, which could prolong consolidation or support a countertrend recovery before D1 weakness resumes.<\/div>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-risks\">\n<li><strong>Timeframe disagreement:<\/strong> D1 is bearish while H4 is bullish, so short-term strength can delay or complicate the weekly structural signal.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Mixed momentum:<\/strong> D1 MACD remains below its signal line but the D1 histogram is positive, leaving the pace and immediacy of bearish continuation uncertain.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Mixed D1 close sequence:<\/strong> The close sequence does not provide uniform directional confirmation, reducing the clarity of the structural trend.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Longer-term moving-average conflict:<\/strong> The EMA50 slope is falling while the SMA200 slope is rising, creating different signals across the supplied D1 trend references.<\/li>\n<li><strong>No scheduled events supplied:<\/strong> The absence of listed events means there is no event timetable available to frame potential repricing or volatility timing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Formal weekly invalidation:<\/strong> The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 111.79108. One completed D1 close below 109.40682 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"faq\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>AUD\/JPY Weekly Forecast FAQs<\/h2>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-faq\">\n<details class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__item\" name=\"fxch-forecast-faq\" open>\n<summary>\n<h3>Is AUD\/JPY bullish or bearish this week?<\/h3>\n<\/summary>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__answer\">\n<p>The weekly bias is Bearish because the D1 trend and moving-average structure remain weak, despite bullish H4 conditions and mixed momentum.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/details>\n<details class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__item\" name=\"fxch-forecast-faq\">\n<summary>\n<h3>What scenario would strengthen for AUD\/JPY this week?<\/h3>\n<\/summary>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__answer\">\n<p>The primary scenario is continued D1-led weakness, but a two-sided consolidation scenario remains credible while H4 momentum is bullish and the D1 close sequence is mixed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/details>\n<details class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__item\" name=\"fxch-forecast-faq\">\n<summary>\n<h3>What are the key AUD\/JPY support and resistance levels?<\/h3>\n<\/summary>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__answer\">\n<p>The key weekly levels are 109.75 and 109.212 on the support side, with 111.4479 and 111.974 as resistance. The permitted bearish reference targets are 109.212 and 108.763.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/details>\n<details class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__item\" name=\"fxch-forecast-faq\">\n<summary>\n<h3>What would invalidate this AUD\/JPY forecast?<\/h3>\n<\/summary>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__answer\">\n<p>The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 111.79108.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/details>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"methodology\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>Methodology, Data and Sources<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-source-list\">\n<li><strong>Price-data source:<\/strong> FXGlory price feed (AUDJPY)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Live quote timestamp:<\/strong> 23 Oct 2026 20:25 GMT+3<\/li>\n<li><strong>Weekly analysis timestamp:<\/strong> 12 October 2026<\/li>\n<li><strong>Chart timestamp:<\/strong> 16 October 2026 (redrawn daily)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Daily check:<\/strong> Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Technical snapshot timestamp:<\/strong> 12 October 2026<\/li>\n<li><strong>Calendar-data source:<\/strong> FXGlory economic calendar<\/li>\n<li><strong>Calendar retrieval timestamp:<\/strong> 12 Oct 2026 16:11 GMT+3<\/li>\n<li><strong>Candle convention:<\/strong> FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Indicator settings:<\/strong> D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI\/MACD\/Bollinger\/EMA\/ATR.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Level-selection method:<\/strong> Weekly D1 support\/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 0.75\u00d7 D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.40\u00d7 D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Weekly forecast method:<\/strong> D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation\/warning only.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div><strong>Primary and supporting sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-source-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/aud-jpy\/historical-data\/\">Historical AUD\/JPY price data<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/aud-jpy\/technical\/\">Live AUD\/JPY technical indicators<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/aud-jpy\/economic-calendar\/\">AUD\/JPY economic calendar<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-callout fxch-forecast-callout--neutral\"><strong>Timestamp policy:<\/strong> the live quote and the D1 chart update automatically during the week. The completed D1 reference close, indicator snapshot and authored conclusions remain tied to the completed D1 candle used for authoring unless the article receives a genuine substantive update.<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<footer class=\"fxch-forecast-footer-note\">\n<p><strong>Disclaimer:<\/strong> This AUD\/JPY analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a personalized recommendation, an offer to trade or a guarantee of future performance. Forecasts are uncertain, market conditions can change rapidly and leveraged trading can result in substantial losses.<\/p>\n<p>Verify the latest price and consider your circumstances and risk tolerance before making financial decisions.<\/p>\n<\/footer>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AUD\/JPY has a bearish weekly bias as D1 structure remains weak, although bullish H4 momentum and mixed D1 signals leave room for consolidation or countertrend strength.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":43381,"template":"","market_instrument":[75],"market_content_type":[44],"class_list":["post-54833","market_article","type-market_article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_instrument-aud-jpy","market_content_type-forecast"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_article\/54833","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/market_article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_article\/54833\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/43381"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=54833"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"market_instrument","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_instrument?post=54833"},{"taxonomy":"market_content_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_content_type?post=54833"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}