{"id":54630,"date":"2026-10-11T18:34:12","date_gmt":"2026-10-11T14:34:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/market\/market\/analysis\/nzd-jpy-forecast-2026-10-11\/"},"modified":"2026-10-23T18:31:15","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T14:31:15","slug":"nzd-jpy-forecast-2026-10-11","status":"publish","type":"market_article","link":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/nzd-jpy\/forecast\/nzd-jpy-forecast-2026-10-11\/","title":{"rendered":"NZD\/JPY Weekly Forecast: 11\u201317 October 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fxch-forecast-article\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-content\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-header\">\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-dek\">The D1 structure remains bearish, while bullish H4 momentum and mixed close sequencing leave room for tactical recovery and two-sided price action.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-status fxch-forecast-status--superseded\" role=\"status\"><strong>Superseded forecast:<\/strong> A newer weekly outlook is available. <a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/nzd-jpy\/forecast\/?fxch_latest=1&#038;from=54630\">Read the latest NZD\/JPY forecast<\/a>.<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card\">\n<figure class=\"ce-content-image fxch-forecast-article-figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1680\" height=\"960\" src=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nzdjpy-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-1680x960.png\" class=\"ce-lightbox-trigger\" alt=\"NZD\/JPY D1 technical analysis chart\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"Open NZD\/JPY technical chart\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-full-src=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nzdjpy-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026.png\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nzdjpy-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-1680x960.png 1680w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nzdjpy-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nzdjpy-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-1024x585.png 1024w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nzdjpy-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-768x439.png 768w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nzdjpy-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-1536x878.png 1536w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nzdjpy-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-2048x1170.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1680px) 100vw, 1680px\" \/><figcaption>NZD\/JPY D1 technical-analysis context for the weekly forecast. Chart data captured 16 October 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<aside class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__panel\" aria-label=\"NZD\/JPY weekly forecast summary\">\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__kicker\">Weekly forecast<\/p>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__pair\">NZD\/JPY<\/p>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__range\">11\u201317 Oct 2026<\/p>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__bias fxch-forecast-chart-card__bias--negative\"><span>Bias<\/span> Bearish<\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__latest\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__label\">Price at last update<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__price\">89.317<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__time\">Updated 23 Oct 2026 20:25 GMT+3<\/span><\/div>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__levels\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__level--support\">\n<dt>Support<\/dt>\n<dd>88.137<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__level--resistance\">\n<dt>Resistance<\/dt>\n<dd>89.050<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<section id=\"weekly-at-a-glance\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>NZD\/JPY Weekly Forecast at a Glance<\/h2>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-grid\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card fxch-forecast-summary-card--price\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__label\">Price at last update<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__value\">89.317<\/strong><small class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__note\">Updated 23 Oct 2026 20:25 GMT+3<\/small><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card fxch-forecast-summary-card--bias fxch-forecast-summary-card--bias-negative\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__label\">Weekly bias<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__value\">Bearish<\/strong><small class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__note\">The bearish weekly bias is led by the D1 trend, falling moving-average slopes and price below the D1 EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200; bullish H4 momentum and mixed price sequencing temper the immediacy of that view.<\/small><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card fxch-forecast-summary-card--timeframe\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__label\">Primary timeframe<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__value\">D1<\/strong><small class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__note\">Controls the weekly thesis<\/small><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card fxch-forecast-summary-card--timeframe\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__label\">Tactical timeframe<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__value\">H4<\/strong><small class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__note\">Confirmation and warning signals<\/small><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card fxch-forecast-summary-card--validity\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__label\">Validity<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__value\">11\u201317 Oct 2026<\/strong><small class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__note\">Through 17 October 2026<\/small><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-answer\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__head\">\n<h3><svg class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__icon\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.7\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M14 3H6a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v14a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h12a2 2 0 0 0 2-2V9z\"\/><path d=\"M14 3v6h6M8 13h8M8 17h5\"\/><\/svg>In brief<\/h3>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__badges\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__status\">Superseded<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__pair\">NZD\/JPY<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__summary\">\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__thesis\">The weekly bias is bearish, although bullish H4 momentum and mixed D1 evidence leave scope for a conditional recovery toward resistance before the broader structure is reassessed.<\/p>\n<p>NZD\/JPY closed at 88.511, below the D1 EMA20 at 89.40907, EMA50 at 90.87434 and SMA200 at 92.5904. The bearish D1 trend and falling EMA50 and SMA200 slopes provide the primary weekly framework, while the mixed close sequence prevents the structure from being treated as one-directional.<\/p>\n<p>The H4 picture is more constructive: its bullish tactical state is supported by RSI at 54.63, a positive MACD histogram of 0.033573 and an H4 close of 88.762 above the H4 middle Bollinger level at 88.63645. That countertrend strength can delay bearish follow-through, but it remains tactical while the D1 trend controls the weekly assessment.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-brief\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-brief__row\">\n<dt>Bullish targets<\/dt>\n<dd>\n<ol class=\"fxch-forecast-brief__targets fxch-forecast-positive\">\n<li><span>T1<\/span><strong>89.729<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><span>T2<\/span><strong>90.142<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-brief__row fxch-forecast-brief__row--invalidation\">\n<dt>Invalidation<\/dt>\n<dd>One completed D1 close above <strong>89.44539<\/strong>.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-table-wrap\">\n<table>\n<caption>NZD\/JPY weekly forecast figures<\/caption>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Price at last update<\/th>\n<td>89.317 as of 23 Oct 2026 20:25 GMT+3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Completed D1 reference close<\/th>\n<td>88.511 as of 8 October 2026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Primary support<\/th>\n<td>88.137<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Secondary support<\/th>\n<td>\u2014<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Primary resistance<\/th>\n<td>89.050<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Bullish targets<\/th>\n<td>89.729, 90.142<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Bearish targets<\/th>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Formal weekly thesis invalidation<\/th>\n<td>Upper 89.445 \u2014 One completed D1 close above 89.445 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"live-tools\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>Live NZD\/JPY Tools<\/h2>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-tools\">\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__lede\">A forecast is a snapshot. These pages keep moving with the market.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__grid\" role=\"list\">\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__card fxch-forecast-tools__card--wide fxch-forecast-tools__card--featured\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__live\">Live<\/span><br \/>\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/nzd-jpy\/\">Live chart &amp; price<\/a><\/h3>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__desc\">Watch NZD\/JPY move tick by tick. Flip from the 1-minute chart to the monthly, with trading conditions right alongside.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__cta\" aria-hidden=\"true\">Open the live chart <svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M5 12h14M13 6l6 6-6 6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__art\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 400 72\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" focusable=\"false\"><path class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__art-fill\" d=\"M0 52 28 46 52 55 84 38 112 44 140 30 172 40 204 24 236 33 268 18 300 27 332 12 364 20 388 8H400V72H0Z\"\/><path class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__art-line\" d=\"M0 52 28 46 52 55 84 38 112 44 140 30 172 40 204 24 236 33 268 18 300 27 332 12 364 20 388 8\"\/><\/svg><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__art-dot\"><\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__card fxch-forecast-tools__card--wide\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__live\">Live<\/span><br \/>\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/nzd-jpy\/technical\/\">Technical signals<\/a><\/h3>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__desc\">Buy, sell or sit it out? Oscillators, moving averages and pivot points boiled down to one clear reading, updated live.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__cta\" aria-hidden=\"true\">See today&#039;s signals <svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M5 12h14M13 6l6 6-6 6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__art\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__art-bars\" viewBox=\"3 0 400 72\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" focusable=\"false\"><rect x=\"8\" y=\"30\" width=\"10\" height=\"12\"\/><rect x=\"28\" y=\"24\" width=\"10\" height=\"18\"\/><rect x=\"48\" y=\"16\" width=\"10\" height=\"26\"\/><rect x=\"68\" y=\"22\" width=\"10\" height=\"20\"\/><rect x=\"88\" y=\"32\" width=\"10\" height=\"10\"\/><rect x=\"108\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"8\"\/><rect x=\"128\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"16\"\/><rect x=\"148\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"22\"\/><rect x=\"168\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"14\"\/><rect x=\"188\" y=\"36\" width=\"10\" height=\"6\"\/><rect x=\"208\" y=\"26\" width=\"10\" height=\"16\"\/><rect x=\"228\" y=\"14\" width=\"10\" height=\"28\"\/><rect x=\"248\" y=\"8\" width=\"10\" height=\"34\"\/><rect x=\"268\" y=\"18\" width=\"10\" height=\"24\"\/><rect x=\"288\" y=\"30\" width=\"10\" height=\"12\"\/><rect x=\"308\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"10\"\/><rect x=\"328\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"18\"\/><rect x=\"348\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"9\"\/><rect x=\"368\" y=\"28\" width=\"10\" height=\"14\"\/><rect x=\"388\" y=\"18\" width=\"10\" height=\"24\"\/><\/svg><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__card\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><rect x=\"3\" y=\"4\" width=\"18\" height=\"17\" rx=\"2\"\/><path d=\"M8 2v4M16 2v4M3 10h18M8 15h2M14 15h2\"\/><\/svg><\/span><br \/>\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/nzd-jpy\/economic-calendar\/\">Economic calendar<\/a><\/h3>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__desc\">Know what&#039;s coming before it hits the price: every scheduled release with impact, forecast and actual.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__cta\" aria-hidden=\"true\">Check the calendar <svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M5 12h14M13 6l6 6-6 6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__card\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 3v16a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h16M9 5v4M9 15v2M17 3v2M17 13v3\"\/><rect x=\"7\" y=\"9\" width=\"4\" height=\"6\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect x=\"15\" y=\"5\" width=\"4\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg><\/span><br \/>\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/nzd-jpy\/historical-data\/\">Historical data<\/a><\/h3>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__desc\">Open, high, low and close on any timeframe from 1 minute to monthly. Test your idea, then download the data.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__cta\" aria-hidden=\"true\">Browse the history <svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M5 12h14M13 6l6 6-6 6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__card\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"12\" r=\"9.5\"\/><path d=\"m16.24 7.76-2.12 6.36-6.36 2.12 2.12-6.36z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><br \/>\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/nzd-jpy\/forecast\/\">All NZD\/JPY forecasts<\/a><\/h3>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__desc\">Every weekly outlook in one place. Scroll back to see how earlier calls played out against the chart.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__cta\" aria-hidden=\"true\">Read past forecasts <svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M5 12h14M13 6l6 6-6 6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"fundamental-drivers\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>NZD\/JPY Fundamental Drivers This Week<\/h2>\n<p>No scheduled events were provided for this forecast, so the weekly assessment rests on the technical structure and the interaction between D1 and H4 conditions.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"market-context\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>Current NZD\/JPY Price and Weekly Market Context<\/h2>\n<p>The weekly structure is controlled by a bearish D1 trend, with the 88.511 close below the D1 EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200. Momentum is mixed rather than uniformly confirming the trend: D1 RSI is 32.1 and the MACD remains negative, but the positive D1 MACD histogram of 0.071764 shows some improvement in the latest momentum reading. H4 is bullish tactically, with its close at 88.762 above the H4 EMA20, EMA50 and middle Bollinger level. This creates a clear hierarchy: the D1 structure keeps the weekly bias bearish, while H4 recovery signals introduce timing risk and the possibility of a retest of resistance.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-states\" role=\"list\">\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-state fxch-forecast-state--negative\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 7l6 6 4-4 8 8\"\/><path d=\"M15 17h6v-6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__label\">D1 trend<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-state__value\">bearish<\/strong><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__basis\">Close vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-state fxch-forecast-state--positive\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 17l6-6 4 4 8-8\"\/><path d=\"M15 7h6v6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__label\">H4 tactical<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-state__value\">bullish<\/strong><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__basis\">H4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-state fxch-forecast-state--neutral\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M7 20V4\"\/><path d=\"M3 8l4-4 4 4\"\/><path d=\"M17 4v16\"\/><path d=\"M13 16l4 4 4-4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__label\">Momentum<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-state__value\">mixed<\/strong><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__basis\">RSI and MACD histogram<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-state\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 9h16\"\/><path d=\"M4 15h16\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__label\">Volatility<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-state__value\">stable<\/strong><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__basis\">D1 ATR change<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"scenarios\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>Is NZD\/JPY Bullish or Bearish This Week?<\/h2>\n<p>The bearish scenario remains the primary weekly interpretation because D1 trend and longer-term moving-average slopes point lower. A bullish countertrend scenario is supported by the constructive H4 state and improving D1 MACD histogram, while a neutral scenario is represented by continued two-sided movement between 88.137 support and 89.05 resistance. Stable volatility suggests that level tests may develop without volatility itself establishing direction.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-nav\" role=\"list\" aria-label=\"Jump to a scenario\">\n<li><a class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-tone--bullish\" href=\"#scenario-bullish\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 17l6-6 4 4 6-7\"\/><path d=\"M15 8h5v5\"\/><\/svg>Bullish reversal<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-tone--base\" href=\"#scenario-base\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 12h16\"\/><path d=\"M8 8l-4 4 4 4\"\/><path d=\"M16 8l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg>Base \/ neutral<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-tone--bearish\" href=\"#scenario-bearish\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 7l6 6 4-4 6 7\"\/><path d=\"M15 16h5v-5\"\/><\/svg>Bearish continuation<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenarios\">\n<section id=\"scenario-bullish\" class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card fxch-forecast-scenario-tone--bullish\" aria-labelledby=\"scenario-bullish-title\">\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__head\" id=\"scenario-bullish-title\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__icon\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 17l6-6 4 4 6-7\"\/><path d=\"M15 8h5v5\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__eyebrow\">Scenario 1 of 3<\/span>Bullish reversal<\/span><\/h3>\n<dl>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row\">\n<dt>D1 confirmation<\/dt>\n<dd>A completed D1 close above 89.05 would provide the first structural evidence that the H4 recovery is extending into the controlling timeframe, with 89.729 and 90.142 as the permitted bullish target levels.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row\">\n<dt>H4 tactical signal<\/dt>\n<dd>H4 acceptance above its resistance at 88.767 would strengthen the tactical recovery case, particularly because H4 RSI is 54.63 and its MACD histogram is positive.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row--targets\">\n<dt>Targets<\/dt>\n<dd>89.729, 90.142<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row--failure\">\n<dt>Scenario failure condition<\/dt>\n<dd>The bullish recovery case would weaken if H4 momentum failed to hold its constructive state and price returned below the H4 support at 88.668, leaving the D1 bearish structure dominant.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"scenario-base\" class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card fxch-forecast-scenario-tone--base\" aria-labelledby=\"scenario-base-title\">\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__head\" id=\"scenario-base-title\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__icon\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 12h16\"\/><path d=\"M8 8l-4 4 4 4\"\/><path d=\"M16 8l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__eyebrow\">Scenario 2 of 3<\/span>Base \/ neutral<\/span><\/h3>\n<dl>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row\">\n<dt>D1 confirmation<\/dt>\n<dd>A mixed D1 close sequence alongside continued trading between the supplied 88.137 support and 89.05 resistance would preserve an indecisive weekly structure rather than establish a fresh directional confirmation.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row\">\n<dt>H4 tactical signal<\/dt>\n<dd>The base case would be supported if the bullish H4 state remained insufficient to produce a D1 close above 89.05 while also avoiding a D1 close below 88.137.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row--targets\">\n<dt>Targets<\/dt>\n<dd>The supplied two-sided framework is bounded by 88.137 support and 89.05 resistance, with no additional bearish target supplied.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row--failure\">\n<dt>Scenario failure condition<\/dt>\n<dd>The consolidation case would weaken if a completed D1 close established a clear break above 89.05 or below 88.137, shifting the balance toward a directional scenario.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"scenario-bearish\" class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card fxch-forecast-scenario-tone--bearish\" aria-labelledby=\"scenario-bearish-title\">\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__head\" id=\"scenario-bearish-title\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__icon\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 7l6 6 4-4 6 7\"\/><path d=\"M15 16h5v-5\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__eyebrow\">Scenario 3 of 3<\/span>Bearish continuation<\/span><\/h3>\n<dl>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row\">\n<dt>D1 confirmation<\/dt>\n<dd>A completed D1 close below 88.137 would strengthen the bearish structural case by placing the primary supplied support beneath the controlling timeframe.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row\">\n<dt>H4 tactical signal<\/dt>\n<dd>A return of H4 below its support at 88.668, especially with the bullish H4 momentum readings no longer supporting price, would provide tactical alignment with the D1 trend.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row--targets\">\n<dt>Targets<\/dt>\n<dd><span class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__missing\">Not identified<\/span><\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row--failure\">\n<dt>Scenario failure condition<\/dt>\n<dd>The bearish continuation case would weaken if H4 recovery extended through 88.767 and the D1 subsequently closed above 89.05, showing that countertrend demand had reached the weekly structure.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-table-note\">\u201cNot identified\u201d means the available analysis did not establish that condition.<\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-callout fxch-forecast-callout--neutral\"><strong>Conditional interpretation:<\/strong> The D1 trend remains the decisive evidence, but its mixed close sequence and mixed momentum leave room for a tactical H4 recovery. A move through 89.05 would make the bullish alternative more relevant, while a move below 88.137 would reinforce bearish continuation; movement between those levels would preserve two-sided risk.<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"technical-analysis\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>NZD\/JPY D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers<\/h2>\n<p>The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the <a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/nzd-jpy\/technical\/\">Technical page<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"ce-content-image fxch-forecast-article-figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1680\" height=\"960\" src=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nzdjpy-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-1680x960.png\" class=\"ce-lightbox-trigger\" alt=\"NZD\/JPY D1 technical analysis chart\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"Open NZD\/JPY technical chart\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-full-src=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nzdjpy-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026.png\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nzdjpy-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-1680x960.png 1680w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nzdjpy-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nzdjpy-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-1024x585.png 1024w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nzdjpy-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-768x439.png 768w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nzdjpy-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-1536x878.png 1536w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nzdjpy-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-2048x1170.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1680px) 100vw, 1680px\" \/><figcaption>NZD\/JPY D1 technical-analysis context for the weekly forecast. Chart data captured 16 October 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3>D1 Price Action and Market Structure<\/h3>\n<p>The D1 close at 88.511 is below the Bollinger middle level at 89.1502 and below the D1 EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200. RSI at 32.1 reflects weak momentum, while the negative MACD values retain a bearish backdrop. The positive MACD histogram of 0.071764 and mixed close sequence show that downside pressure is not developing in a completely uniform way.<\/p>\n<h3>H4 Tactical Triggers<\/h3>\n<p>H4 provides a countertrend recovery signal rather than a replacement for the D1 thesis. Its close at 88.762 is above the H4 EMA20 at 88.61559, EMA50 at 88.73105 and middle Bollinger level at 88.63645, while RSI at 54.63 and the positive MACD histogram of 0.033573 support the bullish tactical state. The H4 resistance at 88.767 is immediately relevant to whether that recovery extends, while 88.668 is the supplied H4 support.<\/p>\n<h3>Technical Indicators at a Glance<\/h3>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-techsum\">\n<div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-techsum__eyebrow\">Automated technical summary<\/p>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-techsum__text\">The technical picture is mixed across timeframes: D1 trend is bearish, H4 tactical state is bullish, momentum is mixed and volatility is stable. D1 price remains below its major moving averages, while H4 price is above its listed moving averages and middle Bollinger level. The result is a bearish weekly framework with a meaningful tactical recovery risk.<\/p>\n<p><small class=\"fxch-forecast-techsum__meta\">Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 16 October 2026.<\/small><\/div>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-signals\" role=\"list\" aria-label=\"Indicator signals\">\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__name\">RSI<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__value\">32.1<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--neutral\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 12h16\"\/><path d=\"M16 8l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg>Neutral<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__name\">MACD<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__value\">Above signal<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--positive\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 17l6-6 4 4 8-8\"\/><path d=\"M15 7h6v6\"\/><\/svg>Bullish<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__name\">Bollinger Bands<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__value\">20% of band<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--neutral\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 12h16\"\/><path d=\"M16 8l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg>Lower half<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__name\">Moving averages<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__value\">Below both<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--negative\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 7l6 6 4-4 8 8\"\/><path d=\"M15 17h6v-6\"\/><\/svg>Bearish<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__name\">ATR<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__value\">73.8 pips<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 9h16\"\/><path d=\"M4 15h16\"\/><\/svg>Stable<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator-grid\">\n<article class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__head\">\n<h4 class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__title\">RSI <span>(14)<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--neutral\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 12h16\"\/><path d=\"M16 8l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg>Neutral<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"RSI on a 0 to 100 scale. D1 is 32.1 (neutral) and H4 is 54.63 (neutral). Oversold is below 30 and overbought is above 70.\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__pin\" style=\"--pos:32.1%\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__label\">D1 <b>32.1<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__track\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone fxch-forecast-gauge__zone--alert\" style=\"width:30%\">Oversold<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone\" style=\"width:40%\">Neutral 30\u201370<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone fxch-forecast-gauge__zone--alert\" style=\"width:30%\">Overbought<\/span><\/div>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__pin fxch-forecast-gauge__pin--below\" style=\"--pos:54.6%\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__label\">H4 <b>54.63<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__text\">D1 RSI at 32.1 is consistent with weak momentum within the bearish structure, but it does not by itself establish continuation. H4 RSI at 54.63 is more constructive and supports the tactical recovery signal, creating timeframe tension.<\/p>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__values\">\n<div>\n<dt>D1 RSI<\/dt>\n<dd>32.1<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>H4 RSI<\/dt>\n<dd>54.63<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__head\">\n<h4 class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__title\">MACD <span>(12, 26, 9)<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--positive\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 17l6-6 4 4 8-8\"\/><path d=\"M15 7h6v6\"\/><\/svg>Bullish momentum<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-macd\">\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__legend\" role=\"list\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__key\"><\/span>MACD<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__key fxch-forecast-macd__key--signal\"><\/span>Signal<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__key fxch-forecast-macd__key--hist\"><\/span>Histogram + \/ \u2212<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__plot\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__zero\" aria-hidden=\"true\">0<\/span><svg viewBox=\"0 0 300 120\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" aria-label=\"D1 MACD over the last 30 sessions. The MACD line at -0.869817 is above its signal line at -0.941581, with the histogram at 0.071764.\"><line class=\"is-zero\" x1=\"0\" x2=\"300\" y1=\"60\" y2=\"60\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"1.5\" y=\"55.9\" width=\"7\" height=\"4.1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"11.5\" y=\"57.4\" width=\"7\" height=\"2.6\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"21.5\" y=\"59\" width=\"7\" height=\"1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"31.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"4.3\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"41.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"10.8\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"51.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"13.6\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"61.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"18\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"71.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"21.5\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"81.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"23.8\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"91.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"24.2\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"101.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"23.6\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"111.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"22.1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"121.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"19.4\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"131.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"16.5\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"141.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"13\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"151.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"8.8\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"161.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"5\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"171.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"1.2\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"181.5\" y=\"59.3\" width=\"7\" height=\"1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"191.5\" y=\"57.4\" width=\"7\" height=\"2.6\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"201.5\" y=\"58.2\" width=\"7\" height=\"1.8\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"211.5\" y=\"58.2\" width=\"7\" height=\"1.8\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"221.5\" y=\"59.2\" width=\"7\" height=\"1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"231.5\" y=\"59.6\" width=\"7\" height=\"1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"241.5\" y=\"59.7\" width=\"7\" height=\"1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"251.5\" y=\"59.2\" width=\"7\" height=\"1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"261.5\" y=\"59.1\" width=\"7\" height=\"1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"271.5\" y=\"57.5\" width=\"7\" height=\"2.5\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos\" x=\"281.5\" y=\"57.4\" width=\"7\" height=\"2.6\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-pos is-latest\" x=\"291.5\" y=\"56.9\" width=\"7\" height=\"3.1\" rx=\"1\"\/><polyline class=\"is-signal\" points=\"5,49.5 15,48.9 25,48.6 35,49.7 45,52.4 55,55.8 65,60.3 75,65.7 85,71.6 95,77.6 105,83.6 115,89.1 125,93.9 135,98.1 145,101.3 155,103.5 165,104.8 175,105.1 185,104.9 195,104.3 205,103.8 215,103.4 225,103.2 235,103.1 245,103 255,102.8 265,102.6 275,101.9 285,101.3 295,100.5\"\/><polyline class=\"is-macd\" points=\"5,45.4 15,46.3 25,47.6 35,54 45,63.2 55,69.4 65,78.3 75,87.1 85,95.4 95,101.8 105,107.2 115,111.2 125,113.3 135,114.5 145,114.4 155,112.3 165,109.7 175,106.3 185,104.3 195,101.7 205,102 215,101.6 225,102.3 235,102.7 245,102.6 255,102 265,101.7 275,99.4 285,98.6 295,97.4\"\/><\/svg><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__axis\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span>30 D1 sessions ago<\/span><span>Latest<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__text\">D1 MACD remains negative, supporting the broader bearish backdrop, while its positive histogram indicates some improvement in the latest momentum relationship. H4 MACD is above its signal and its positive histogram supports the bullish tactical state.<\/p>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__values\">\n<div>\n<dt>MACD<\/dt>\n<dd>-0.869817<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>Signal<\/dt>\n<dd>-0.941581<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>Histogram<\/dt>\n<dd>0.071764<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__head\">\n<h4 class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__title\">Bollinger Bands <span>(20, 2\u03c3)<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--neutral\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 12h16\"\/><path d=\"M16 8l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg>Lower half<\/span><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge fxch-forecast-gauge--ticks\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Latest D1 close 88.511 sits inside the Bollinger Bands, 20% of the way from the lower band at 88.097 to the upper band at 90.204.\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__pin\" style=\"--pos:28.8%\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__label\">Close <b>88.511<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__track\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone fxch-forecast-gauge__zone--outside\" style=\"width:15%\"><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone\" style=\"width:35%\">Lower half<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone\" style=\"width:35%\">Upper half<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone fxch-forecast-gauge__zone--outside\" style=\"width:15%\"><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__ticks\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__tick\" style=\"--pos:15%\">Lower<b>88.097<\/b><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__tick\" style=\"--pos:50%\">Middle<b>89.150<\/b><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__tick\" style=\"--pos:85%\">Upper<b>90.204<\/b><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__caption\">Striped ends = price outside the bands.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__text\">The D1 close is below the middle Bollinger level, consistent with a weak broader structure, while the H4 close is above its middle level and within the H4 band. The bands describe the current positioning and tactical environment; they do not independently determine direction.<\/p>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__values\">\n<div>\n<dt>Position in band<\/dt>\n<dd>20%<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>Band width<\/dt>\n<dd>210.7 pips (2.36%)<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__head\">\n<h4 class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__title\">Moving averages <span>(D1)<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--negative\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 7l6 6 4-4 8 8\"\/><path d=\"M15 17h6v-6\"\/><\/svg>Bearish structure<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__axis\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span>Price below average<\/span><span>Price above average<\/span><\/div>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-ma\" role=\"list\">\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__row\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__name\">50 EMA <span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__slope\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 7l6 6 4-4 8 8\"\/><path d=\"M15 17h6v-6\"\/><\/svg>falling<\/span><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__value\">90.874<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__fill fxch-forecast-ma__fill--below\" style=\"--w:47.2%\"><\/span><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__dist\">Price is <b>236.3 pips below<\/b> (-2.60%)<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__row\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__name\">200 SMA <span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__slope\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 7l6 6 4-4 8 8\"\/><path d=\"M15 17h6v-6\"\/><\/svg>falling<\/span><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__value\">92.590<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__fill fxch-forecast-ma__fill--below\" style=\"--w:80%\"><\/span><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__dist\">Price is <b>407.9 pips below<\/b> (-4.41%)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__text\">The D1 close is below EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, and both the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling, providing the strongest trend-confirming evidence. H4 price is above its EMA20 and EMA50, which explains the tactical bullish counterweight without overturning the D1 hierarchy.<\/p>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__values\">\n<div>\n<dt>D1 close<\/dt>\n<dd>88.511<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>50 EMA<\/dt>\n<dd>90.874<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>200 SMA<\/dt>\n<dd>92.590<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator fxch-forecast-indicator--wide\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__head\">\n<h4 class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__title\">ATR <span>(14)<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 9h16\"\/><path d=\"M4 15h16\"\/><\/svg>Stable volatility<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__split\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-range\" style=\"--gutter:8ch\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Typical move size around the latest close of 88.511. One D1 ATR is 73.8 pips, spanning 87.773 to 89.249. One H4 ATR is 26.4 pips, spanning 88.247 to 88.775.\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__close\">Close <b>88.511<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<div><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__cap\">Typical 1-day move <b>\u00b173.8 pips<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-range__bar\" style=\"--w:1\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__lo\">87.773<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__hi\">89.249<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__cap\">Typical 4-hour move <b>\u00b126.4 pips<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-range__bar fxch-forecast-range__bar--h4\" style=\"--w:0.358\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__lo\">88.247<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__hi\">88.775<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__caption\">One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__text\">Stable volatility frames the setup as a measured level-driven environment rather than providing directional evidence. The D1 ATR is larger than the H4 ATR, indicating that the higher timeframe carries the broader movement range while H4 describes more contained tactical conditions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__values\">\n<div>\n<dt>D1 ATR<\/dt>\n<dd>0.73798 (0.83%)<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>H4 ATR<\/dt>\n<dd>0.26387 (0.30%)<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>Technical conclusion:<\/strong> The controlling evidence remains bearish D1 structure: the close is below the D1 EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, and the longer moving-average slopes are falling. The strongest counterargument is the bullish H4 state, supported by H4 price above its listed averages and a positive MACD histogram, while D1 momentum is mixed rather than uniformly negative. The next supplied weekly reference points are 88.137 support and 89.05 resistance, with 89.729 and 90.142 available only as bullish target candidates.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/nzd-jpy\/technical\/\">View all live NZD\/JPY oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"levels\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>NZD\/JPY Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation<\/h2>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-table-wrap fxch-forecast-levels\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Timeframe<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Why it matters<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>88.137<\/td>\n<td>Primary support<\/td>\n<td>D1<\/td>\n<td>A completed D1 close below this supplied support would strengthen the bearish structural case.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>89.05<\/td>\n<td>Primary resistance<\/td>\n<td>D1<\/td>\n<td>A completed D1 close above this resistance would provide initial evidence that the H4 recovery is extending into the controlling timeframe.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>89.729<\/td>\n<td>Secondary resistance and bullish target<\/td>\n<td>D1<\/td>\n<td>It is the second supplied resistance and the first permitted bullish target if the recovery progresses beyond 89.05.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>90.142<\/td>\n<td>Bullish target<\/td>\n<td>D1<\/td>\n<td>It is the second permitted bullish target and represents a further conditional extension of the recovery scenario.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>88.668<\/td>\n<td>H4 support<\/td>\n<td>H4<\/td>\n<td>Holding above this level would preserve the bullish tactical state, while a move below it would reduce H4 support for the recovery.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>88.767<\/td>\n<td>H4 resistance<\/td>\n<td>H4<\/td>\n<td>A move above this level would strengthen the tactical recovery case, subject to confirmation from the D1 structure.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the <a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/nzd-jpy\/technical\/\">Technical page<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"events\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>Economic News &amp; Events to Watch for NZD\/JPY This Week<\/h2>\n<p>No scheduled events available for this period.<\/p>\n<p>Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 11 Oct 2026 17:34 GMT+3. <a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/nzd-jpy\/economic-calendar\/\">View the complete NZD\/JPY economic calendar<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>NZD\/JPY Outlook for 11\u201317 October 2026<\/h2>\n<p>NZD\/JPY enters 11\u201317 October 2026 with a bearish D1 framework, anchored by the close below the D1 moving averages and falling EMA50 and SMA200 slopes. The mixed close sequence, positive D1 MACD histogram and bullish H4 condition prevent the setup from being treated as a clean continuation signal.<\/p>\n<p>The key conditional framework is defined by 88.137 support and 89.05 resistance. A completed D1 close below support would reinforce the bearish interpretation, while a completed D1 close above resistance would elevate the countertrend recovery case toward the supplied bullish targets at 89.729 and 90.142. Stable volatility keeps the emphasis on how price interacts with those existing levels.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"risks\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook<\/h2>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-callout fxch-forecast-callout--risk\"><strong>Main forecast risk:<\/strong> The main risk to the bearish weekly interpretation is timeframe disagreement: bullish H4 momentum, a positive H4 MACD histogram and mixed D1 momentum could delay or counter the D1 trend before a clear structural resolution.<\/div>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-risks\">\n<li><strong>H4-D1 disagreement:<\/strong> The bullish H4 state conflicts with the bearish D1 trend and can produce a recovery that complicates the timing of any broader continuation.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Mixed momentum:<\/strong> D1 RSI and negative MACD support weakness, but the positive D1 MACD histogram shows that momentum is not uniformly aligned with the trend.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Mixed D1 close sequence:<\/strong> The close sequence reduces the clarity of the bearish structure and supports a two-sided base scenario while price remains between supplied levels.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Stable volatility:<\/strong> Stable volatility may allow the market to remain contained around support and resistance, delaying directional confirmation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Formal weekly invalidation:<\/strong> The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 89.44539. One completed D1 close below 87.66232 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"faq\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>NZD\/JPY Weekly Forecast FAQs<\/h2>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-faq\">\n<details class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__item\" name=\"fxch-forecast-faq\" open>\n<summary>\n<h3>Is NZD\/JPY bullish or bearish this week?<\/h3>\n<\/summary>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__answer\">\n<p>The weekly bias is bearish because the D1 trend remains bearish and price is below the D1 EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200. Bullish H4 momentum and mixed D1 closes make the outlook conditional rather than one-sided.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/details>\n<details class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__item\" name=\"fxch-forecast-faq\">\n<summary>\n<h3>What scenario would strengthen for NZD\/JPY this week?<\/h3>\n<\/summary>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__answer\">\n<p>A recovery scenario would become more relevant if a completed D1 close moved above 89.05, with the permitted bullish targets at 89.729 and 90.142. A bearish continuation scenario would gain structural support from a completed D1 close below 88.137, although no bearish target was supplied.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/details>\n<details class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__item\" name=\"fxch-forecast-faq\">\n<summary>\n<h3>What are the key NZD\/JPY support and resistance levels?<\/h3>\n<\/summary>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__answer\">\n<p>The primary support is 88.137. Resistance is 89.05 first, followed by 89.729. The bullish target candidates are 89.729 and 90.142; no bearish target candidates were supplied.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/details>\n<details class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__item\" name=\"fxch-forecast-faq\">\n<summary>\n<h3>What would invalidate this NZD\/JPY forecast?<\/h3>\n<\/summary>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__answer\">\n<p>The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 89.44539.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/details>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"methodology\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>Methodology, Data and Sources<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-source-list\">\n<li><strong>Price-data source:<\/strong> FXGlory price feed (NZDJPY)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Live quote timestamp:<\/strong> 23 Oct 2026 20:25 GMT+3<\/li>\n<li><strong>Weekly analysis timestamp:<\/strong> 11 October 2026<\/li>\n<li><strong>Chart timestamp:<\/strong> 16 October 2026 (redrawn daily)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Daily check:<\/strong> Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Technical snapshot timestamp:<\/strong> 11 October 2026<\/li>\n<li><strong>Calendar-data source:<\/strong> FXGlory economic calendar<\/li>\n<li><strong>Calendar retrieval timestamp:<\/strong> 11 Oct 2026 17:34 GMT+3<\/li>\n<li><strong>Candle convention:<\/strong> FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Indicator settings:<\/strong> D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI\/MACD\/Bollinger\/EMA\/ATR.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Level-selection method:<\/strong> Weekly D1 support\/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 0.75\u00d7 D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.40\u00d7 D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Weekly forecast method:<\/strong> D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation\/warning only.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div><strong>Primary and supporting sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-source-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/nzd-jpy\/historical-data\/\">Historical NZD\/JPY price data<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/nzd-jpy\/technical\/\">Live NZD\/JPY technical indicators<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/nzd-jpy\/economic-calendar\/\">NZD\/JPY economic calendar<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-callout fxch-forecast-callout--neutral\"><strong>Timestamp policy:<\/strong> the live quote and the D1 chart update automatically during the week. The completed D1 reference close, indicator snapshot and authored conclusions remain tied to the completed D1 candle used for authoring unless the article receives a genuine substantive update.<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<footer class=\"fxch-forecast-footer-note\">\n<p><strong>Disclaimer:<\/strong> This NZD\/JPY analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a personalized recommendation, an offer to trade or a guarantee of future performance. Forecasts are uncertain, market conditions can change rapidly and leveraged trading can result in substantial losses.<\/p>\n<p>Verify the latest price and consider your circumstances and risk tolerance before making financial decisions.<\/p>\n<\/footer>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The weekly bias is bearish, although bullish H4 momentum and mixed D1 evidence leave scope for a conditional recovery toward resistance before the broader structure is reassessed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":43465,"template":"","market_instrument":[89],"market_content_type":[44],"class_list":["post-54630","market_article","type-market_article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_instrument-nzd-jpy","market_content_type-forecast"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_article\/54630","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/market_article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_article\/54630\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/43465"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=54630"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"market_instrument","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_instrument?post=54630"},{"taxonomy":"market_content_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_content_type?post=54630"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}