{"id":54585,"date":"2026-10-11T17:33:58","date_gmt":"2026-10-11T13:33:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/market\/market\/analysis\/eur-usd-forecast-2026-10-11\/"},"modified":"2026-10-23T18:32:12","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T14:32:12","slug":"eur-usd-forecast-2026-10-11","status":"publish","type":"market_article","link":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/eur-usd\/forecast\/eur-usd-forecast-2026-10-11\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD Weekly Forecast: 11\u201317 October 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fxch-forecast-article\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-content\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-header\">\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-dek\">The weekly case remains bearish as D1 structure and negative momentum align, while H4 weakness adds tactical pressure despite mixed D1 closes and expanding volatility.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-status fxch-forecast-status--superseded\" role=\"status\"><strong>Superseded forecast:<\/strong> A newer weekly outlook is available. <a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/eur-usd\/forecast\/?fxch_latest=1&#038;from=54585\">Read the latest EUR\/USD forecast<\/a>.<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card\">\n<figure class=\"ce-content-image fxch-forecast-article-figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1680\" height=\"960\" src=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/eurusd-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-1680x960.png\" class=\"ce-lightbox-trigger\" alt=\"EUR\/USD D1 technical analysis chart\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"Open EUR\/USD technical chart\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-full-src=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/eurusd-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026.png\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/eurusd-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-1680x960.png 1680w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/eurusd-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/eurusd-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-1024x585.png 1024w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/eurusd-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-768x439.png 768w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/eurusd-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-1536x878.png 1536w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/eurusd-d1-technical-analysis-for-10.16.2026-2048x1170.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1680px) 100vw, 1680px\" \/><figcaption>EUR\/USD D1 technical-analysis context for the weekly forecast. Chart data captured 16 October 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<aside class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__panel\" aria-label=\"EUR\/USD weekly forecast summary\">\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__kicker\">Weekly forecast<\/p>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__pair\">EUR\/USD<\/p>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__range\">11\u201317 Oct 2026<\/p>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__bias fxch-forecast-chart-card__bias--negative\"><span>Bias<\/span> Bearish<\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__latest\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__label\">Price at last update<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__price\">1.11980<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__time\">Updated 23 Oct 2026 20:25 GMT+3<\/span><\/div>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__levels\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__level--support\">\n<dt>Support<\/dt>\n<dd>1.11638<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-chart-card__level--resistance\">\n<dt>Resistance<\/dt>\n<dd>1.12758<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<section id=\"weekly-at-a-glance\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>EUR\/USD Weekly Forecast at a Glance<\/h2>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-grid\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card fxch-forecast-summary-card--price\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__label\">Price at last update<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__value\">1.11980<\/strong><small class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__note\">Updated 23 Oct 2026 20:25 GMT+3<\/small><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card fxch-forecast-summary-card--bias fxch-forecast-summary-card--bias-negative\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__label\">Weekly bias<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__value\">Bearish<\/strong><small class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__note\">The bearish reading is supported by the D1 trend state, negative momentum and bearish H4 tactical state, although the mixed D1 close sequence limits directional certainty.<\/small><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card fxch-forecast-summary-card--timeframe\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__label\">Primary timeframe<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__value\">D1<\/strong><small class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__note\">Controls the weekly thesis<\/small><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card fxch-forecast-summary-card--timeframe\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__label\">Tactical timeframe<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__value\">H4<\/strong><small class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__note\">Confirmation and warning signals<\/small><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card fxch-forecast-summary-card--validity\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__label\">Validity<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__value\">11\u201317 Oct 2026<\/strong><small class=\"fxch-forecast-summary-card__note\">Through 17 October 2026<\/small><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-answer\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__head\">\n<h3><svg class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__icon\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.7\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M14 3H6a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v14a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h12a2 2 0 0 0 2-2V9z\"\/><path d=\"M14 3v6h6M8 13h8M8 17h5\"\/><\/svg>In brief<\/h3>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__badges\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__status\">Superseded<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__pair\">EUR\/USD<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__summary\">\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-answer__thesis\">EUR\/USD has a bearish weekly bias as D1 structure and negative momentum align, while bearish H4 conditions reinforce pressure but mixed D1 closes and expanding volatility preserve two-sided risk.<\/p>\n<p>The reference D1 close is 1.12097, below the primary resistance at 1.12758 and the secondary resistance at 1.13794. The bearish D1 trend, falling EMA50 and falling SMA200 slopes, together with negative momentum, keep the broader structure under pressure.<\/p>\n<p>H4 remains bearish and places tactical emphasis on the nearby 1.11854 support and 1.1212 resistance, but H4 is subordinate to the D1 thesis. A move through the supplied support or resistance areas would determine whether downside pressure develops or consolidation becomes more prominent.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-brief\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-brief__row\">\n<dt>Bullish targets<\/dt>\n<dd>\n<ol class=\"fxch-forecast-brief__targets fxch-forecast-positive\">\n<li><span>T1<\/span><strong>1.13794<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><span>T2<\/span><strong>1.14173<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-brief__row fxch-forecast-brief__row--invalidation\">\n<dt>Invalidation<\/dt>\n<dd>One completed D1 close above <strong>1.12820<\/strong>.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-brief__calendar\">\n<h4>Selected key events<\/h4>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-brief__events\" role=\"list\">\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-brief__event\">Treasury Currency Report<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-brief__when\">16 Oct 2026 (Tentative)<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-brief__impact\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-impact fxch-forecast-impact--medium\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-impact__bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span>Medium<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-table-wrap\">\n<table>\n<caption>EUR\/USD weekly forecast figures<\/caption>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Price at last update<\/th>\n<td>1.11980 as of 23 Oct 2026 20:25 GMT+3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Completed D1 reference close<\/th>\n<td>1.12097 as of 8 October 2026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Primary support<\/th>\n<td>1.11638<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Secondary support<\/th>\n<td>\u2014<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Primary resistance<\/th>\n<td>1.12758<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Bullish targets<\/th>\n<td>1.13794, 1.14173<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Bearish targets<\/th>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Formal weekly thesis invalidation<\/th>\n<td>Upper 1.12820 \u2014 One completed D1 close above 1.12820 formally invalidates the bearish weekly thesis.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"live-tools\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>Live EUR\/USD Tools<\/h2>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-tools\">\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__lede\">A forecast is a snapshot. These pages keep moving with the market.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__grid\" role=\"list\">\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__card fxch-forecast-tools__card--wide fxch-forecast-tools__card--featured\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__live\">Live<\/span><br \/>\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/eur-usd\/\">Live chart &amp; price<\/a><\/h3>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__desc\">Watch EUR\/USD move tick by tick. Flip from the 1-minute chart to the monthly, with trading conditions right alongside.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__cta\" aria-hidden=\"true\">Open the live chart <svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M5 12h14M13 6l6 6-6 6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__art\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 400 72\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" focusable=\"false\"><path class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__art-fill\" d=\"M0 52 28 46 52 55 84 38 112 44 140 30 172 40 204 24 236 33 268 18 300 27 332 12 364 20 388 8H400V72H0Z\"\/><path class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__art-line\" d=\"M0 52 28 46 52 55 84 38 112 44 140 30 172 40 204 24 236 33 268 18 300 27 332 12 364 20 388 8\"\/><\/svg><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__art-dot\"><\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__card fxch-forecast-tools__card--wide\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__live\">Live<\/span><br \/>\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/eur-usd\/technical\/\">Technical signals<\/a><\/h3>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__desc\">Buy, sell or sit it out? Oscillators, moving averages and pivot points boiled down to one clear reading, updated live.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__cta\" aria-hidden=\"true\">See today&#039;s signals <svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M5 12h14M13 6l6 6-6 6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__art\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__art-bars\" viewBox=\"3 0 400 72\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" focusable=\"false\"><rect x=\"8\" y=\"30\" width=\"10\" height=\"12\"\/><rect x=\"28\" y=\"24\" width=\"10\" height=\"18\"\/><rect x=\"48\" y=\"16\" width=\"10\" height=\"26\"\/><rect x=\"68\" y=\"22\" width=\"10\" height=\"20\"\/><rect x=\"88\" y=\"32\" width=\"10\" height=\"10\"\/><rect x=\"108\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"8\"\/><rect x=\"128\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"16\"\/><rect x=\"148\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"22\"\/><rect x=\"168\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"14\"\/><rect x=\"188\" y=\"36\" width=\"10\" height=\"6\"\/><rect x=\"208\" y=\"26\" width=\"10\" height=\"16\"\/><rect x=\"228\" y=\"14\" width=\"10\" height=\"28\"\/><rect x=\"248\" y=\"8\" width=\"10\" height=\"34\"\/><rect x=\"268\" y=\"18\" width=\"10\" height=\"24\"\/><rect x=\"288\" y=\"30\" width=\"10\" height=\"12\"\/><rect x=\"308\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"10\"\/><rect x=\"328\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"18\"\/><rect x=\"348\" y=\"42\" width=\"10\" height=\"9\"\/><rect x=\"368\" y=\"28\" width=\"10\" height=\"14\"\/><rect x=\"388\" y=\"18\" width=\"10\" height=\"24\"\/><\/svg><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__card\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><rect x=\"3\" y=\"4\" width=\"18\" height=\"17\" rx=\"2\"\/><path d=\"M8 2v4M16 2v4M3 10h18M8 15h2M14 15h2\"\/><\/svg><\/span><br \/>\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/eur-usd\/economic-calendar\/\">Economic calendar<\/a><\/h3>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__desc\">Know what&#039;s coming before it hits the price: every scheduled release with impact, forecast and actual.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__cta\" aria-hidden=\"true\">Check the calendar <svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M5 12h14M13 6l6 6-6 6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__card\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 3v16a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h16M9 5v4M9 15v2M17 3v2M17 13v3\"\/><rect x=\"7\" y=\"9\" width=\"4\" height=\"6\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect x=\"15\" y=\"5\" width=\"4\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg><\/span><br \/>\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/eur-usd\/historical-data\/\">Historical data<\/a><\/h3>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__desc\">Open, high, low and close on any timeframe from 1 minute to monthly. Test your idea, then download the data.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__cta\" aria-hidden=\"true\">Browse the history <svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M5 12h14M13 6l6 6-6 6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__card\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"12\" r=\"9.5\"\/><path d=\"m16.24 7.76-2.12 6.36-6.36 2.12 2.12-6.36z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><br \/>\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/eur-usd\/forecast\/\">All EUR\/USD forecasts<\/a><\/h3>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__desc\">Every weekly outlook in one place. Scroll back to see how earlier calls played out against the chart.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-tools__cta\" aria-hidden=\"true\">Read past forecasts <svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M5 12h14M13 6l6 6-6 6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"fundamental-drivers\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>EUR\/USD Fundamental Drivers This Week<\/h2>\n<p>Scheduled economic events relevant to EUR\/USD during 11\u201317 October 2026 include Treasury Currency Report. Directional impact depends on the released data relative to supplied expectations.<\/p>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-table-hint\">Scroll table sideways for more columns \u2192<\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-table-wrap fxch-forecast-table-wrap--wide fxch-forecast-drivers\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"Fundamental drivers table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"col\">Event<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Scheduled<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Importance<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Treasury Currency Report<\/th>\n<td>16 Oct 2026 (Tentative)<\/td>\n<td><span class=\"fxch-forecast-impact fxch-forecast-impact--medium\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-impact__bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span>Medium<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"market-context\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>Current EUR\/USD Price and Weekly Market Context<\/h2>\n<p>D1 controls the weekly thesis: the trend state is bearish, momentum is negative, and both EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling. The mixed D1 close sequence introduces hesitation, while bearish H4 conditions provide tactical confirmation rather than an independent weekly signal. Expanding volatility raises the risk of faster tests of established levels without determining direction by itself.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-states\" role=\"list\">\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-state fxch-forecast-state--negative\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 7l6 6 4-4 8 8\"\/><path d=\"M15 17h6v-6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__label\">D1 trend<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-state__value\">bearish<\/strong><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__basis\">Close vs 50 EMA and 200 SMA<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-state fxch-forecast-state--negative\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 7l6 6 4-4 8 8\"\/><path d=\"M15 17h6v-6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__label\">H4 tactical<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-state__value\">bearish<\/strong><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__basis\">H4 close vs 20 and 50 EMA<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-state fxch-forecast-state--negative\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 7l6 6 4-4 8 8\"\/><path d=\"M15 17h6v-6\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__label\">Momentum<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-state__value\">negative<\/strong><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__basis\">RSI and MACD histogram<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-state\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 10V3\"\/><path d=\"M8 7l4-4 4 4\"\/><path d=\"M12 14v7\"\/><path d=\"M8 17l4 4 4-4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__label\">Volatility<\/span><strong class=\"fxch-forecast-state__value\">expanding<\/strong><span class=\"fxch-forecast-state__basis\">D1 ATR change<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"scenarios\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>Is EUR\/USD Bullish or Bearish This Week?<\/h2>\n<p>The primary scenario is continued bearish pressure because D1 trend, negative momentum and bearish H4 conditions are aligned. A neutral scenario remains plausible if mixed D1 closes evolve into two-sided consolidation around the supplied levels. A bullish countertrend scenario would require a stronger recovery through the supplied resistance structure and a completed D1 close above 1.1282.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-nav\" role=\"list\" aria-label=\"Jump to a scenario\">\n<li><a class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-tone--bullish\" href=\"#scenario-bullish\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 17l6-6 4 4 6-7\"\/><path d=\"M15 8h5v5\"\/><\/svg>Bullish reversal<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-tone--base\" href=\"#scenario-base\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 12h16\"\/><path d=\"M8 8l-4 4 4 4\"\/><path d=\"M16 8l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg>Base \/ neutral<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-tone--bearish\" href=\"#scenario-bearish\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 7l6 6 4-4 6 7\"\/><path d=\"M15 16h5v-5\"\/><\/svg>Bearish continuation<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenarios\">\n<section id=\"scenario-bullish\" class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card fxch-forecast-scenario-tone--bullish\" aria-labelledby=\"scenario-bullish-title\">\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__head\" id=\"scenario-bullish-title\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__icon\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 17l6-6 4 4 6-7\"\/><path d=\"M15 8h5v5\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__eyebrow\">Scenario 1 of 3<\/span>Bullish reversal<\/span><\/h3>\n<dl>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row\">\n<dt>D1 confirmation<\/dt>\n<dd>A bullish alternative would gain technical weight if D1 price action recovered through 1.12758 and progressed toward 1.13794, with the structural case strengthened by one completed D1 close above 1.1282.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row\">\n<dt>H4 tactical signal<\/dt>\n<dd>H4 would provide tactical support for the bullish alternative if price reclaimed the supplied H4 resistance at 1.1212 and then maintained pressure toward the weekly resistance at 1.12758.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row--targets\">\n<dt>Targets<\/dt>\n<dd>1.13794, 1.14173<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row--failure\">\n<dt>Scenario failure condition<\/dt>\n<dd>The bullish alternative would weaken if H4 failed to hold above 1.1212 and D1 remained below 1.12758, leaving the bearish trend and negative momentum dominant.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"scenario-base\" class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card fxch-forecast-scenario-tone--base\" aria-labelledby=\"scenario-base-title\">\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__head\" id=\"scenario-base-title\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__icon\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 12h16\"\/><path d=\"M8 8l-4 4 4 4\"\/><path d=\"M16 8l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__eyebrow\">Scenario 2 of 3<\/span>Base \/ neutral<\/span><\/h3>\n<dl>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row\">\n<dt>D1 confirmation<\/dt>\n<dd>The base scenario would be supported by continued mixed D1 closes, with price remaining between the supplied support at 1.11638 and resistance at 1.12758 rather than producing a clear structural resolution.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row\">\n<dt>H4 tactical signal<\/dt>\n<dd>H4 would support consolidation if its bearish condition eased without establishing a sustained recovery through 1.12758, leaving the tactical picture conflicted rather than decisively directional.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row--targets\">\n<dt>Targets<\/dt>\n<dd>The neutral path is defined by two-sided interaction between 1.11638 and 1.12758, with 1.1212 and 1.11854 providing the supplied H4 tactical reference points.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row--failure\">\n<dt>Scenario failure condition<\/dt>\n<dd>The consolidation scenario would weaken if a completed D1 close established a clear move beyond the relevant structural boundary, particularly above 1.1282 for the upper-side challenge.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"scenario-bearish\" class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card fxch-forecast-scenario-tone--bearish\" aria-labelledby=\"scenario-bearish-title\">\n<h3 class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__head\" id=\"scenario-bearish-title\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__icon\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 7l6 6 4-4 6 7\"\/><path d=\"M15 16h5v-5\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__eyebrow\">Scenario 3 of 3<\/span>Bearish continuation<\/span><\/h3>\n<dl>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row\">\n<dt>D1 confirmation<\/dt>\n<dd>The bearish scenario would gain confirmation if D1 weakness persisted below 1.12758 and pressure developed toward the primary support at 1.11638, while the negative momentum state remained in place.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row\">\n<dt>H4 tactical signal<\/dt>\n<dd>H4 would add tactical confirmation if it remained below 1.1212 and weakened through the supplied H4 support at 1.11854, aligning short-term structure with the bearish D1 thesis.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row--targets\">\n<dt>Targets<\/dt>\n<dd><span class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__missing\">Not identified<\/span><\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row fxch-forecast-scenario-card__row--failure\">\n<dt>Scenario failure condition<\/dt>\n<dd>The bearish scenario would materially weaken if H4 reclaimed 1.1212 and D1 then recovered through 1.12758, especially if that recovery culminated in one completed D1 close above 1.1282.<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-table-note\">\u201cNot identified\u201d means the available analysis did not establish that condition.<\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-callout fxch-forecast-callout--neutral\"><strong>Conditional interpretation:<\/strong> The evidence hierarchy favors the bearish path because the controlling D1 trend and momentum agree with H4. However, mixed D1 closes and expanding volatility leave room for consolidation or a countertrend recovery, with the supplied levels determining which alternative gains relevance.<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"technical-analysis\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>EUR\/USD D1 Outlook and H4 Technical Triggers<\/h2>\n<p>The daily timeframe controls the weekly thesis. H4 evidence is used only for earlier confirmation, tactical warning and scenario-failure context. Complete live H4, H1 and intraday readings remain on the <a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/eur-usd\/technical\/\">Technical page<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"ce-content-image fxch-forecast-article-figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1680\" height=\"960\" src=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/eurusd-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-1680x960.png\" class=\"ce-lightbox-trigger\" alt=\"EUR\/USD D1 technical analysis chart\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"Open EUR\/USD technical chart\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-full-src=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/eurusd-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026.png\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/eurusd-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-1680x960.png 1680w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/eurusd-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/eurusd-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-1024x585.png 1024w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/eurusd-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-768x439.png 768w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/eurusd-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-1536x878.png 1536w, https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/eurusd-d1-weekly-levels-for-10.16.2026-2048x1170.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1680px) 100vw, 1680px\" \/><figcaption>EUR\/USD D1 technical-analysis context for the weekly forecast. Chart data captured 16 October 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3>D1 Price Action and Market Structure<\/h3>\n<p>The D1 close at 1.12097 sits below the primary resistance at 1.12758 and above the primary support at 1.11638. The mixed close sequence signals incomplete directional follow-through, but the bearish trend state, falling EMA50 and SMA200 slopes, and negative momentum keep the structural balance tilted lower.<\/p>\n<h3>H4 Tactical Triggers<\/h3>\n<p>H4 is bearish, with its close at 1.11892 below the H4 resistance at 1.1212 and above the H4 support at 1.11854. Its negative MACD reading remains tactically consistent with the D1 pressure, while the H4 RSI at 40.8 shows that short-term momentum is weak without independently replacing the D1 framework.<\/p>\n<h3>Technical Indicators at a Glance<\/h3>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-techsum\">\n<div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-techsum__eyebrow\">Automated technical summary<\/p>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-techsum__text\">The technical picture is bearish on the controlling D1 timeframe, with negative momentum, falling moving-average slopes and a mixed close sequence. H4 is also bearish, while expanding volatility indicates a greater potential for faster level tests rather than a directional guarantee.<\/p>\n<p><small class=\"fxch-forecast-techsum__meta\">Selected snapshot: D1 with H4 tactical context. Updated 16 October 2026.<\/small><\/div>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-signals\" role=\"list\" aria-label=\"Indicator signals\">\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__name\">RSI<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__value\">25.35<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--neutral\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 7l6 6 4-4 8 8\"\/><path d=\"M15 17h6v-6\"\/><\/svg>Oversold<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__name\">MACD<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__value\">Below signal<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--negative\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 7l6 6 4-4 8 8\"\/><path d=\"M15 17h6v-6\"\/><\/svg>Bearish<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__name\">Bollinger Bands<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__value\">14% of band<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--neutral\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 12h16\"\/><path d=\"M16 8l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg>Lower half<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__name\">Moving averages<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__value\">Below both<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--negative\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 7l6 6 4-4 8 8\"\/><path d=\"M15 17h6v-6\"\/><\/svg>Bearish<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__name\">ATR<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-signals__value\">61.7 pips<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 10V3\"\/><path d=\"M8 7l4-4 4 4\"\/><path d=\"M12 14v7\"\/><path d=\"M8 17l4 4 4-4\"\/><\/svg>Expanding<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator-grid\">\n<article class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__head\">\n<h4 class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__title\">RSI <span>(14)<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--neutral\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 7l6 6 4-4 8 8\"\/><path d=\"M15 17h6v-6\"\/><\/svg>Oversold<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"RSI on a 0 to 100 scale. D1 is 25.35 (oversold) and H4 is 40.8 (neutral). Oversold is below 30 and overbought is above 70.\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__pin\" style=\"--pos:25.4%\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__label\">D1 <b>25.35<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__track\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone fxch-forecast-gauge__zone--alert\" style=\"width:30%\">Oversold<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone\" style=\"width:40%\">Neutral 30\u201370<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone fxch-forecast-gauge__zone--alert\" style=\"width:30%\">Overbought<\/span><\/div>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__pin fxch-forecast-gauge__pin--below\" style=\"--pos:40.8%\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__label\">H4 <b>40.8<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__text\">D1 RSI at 25.35 reflects weak momentum within the bearish structure, while H4 RSI at 40.8 is also below a neutral reading. Together they support downside pressure but do not by themselves establish the timing or persistence of the move.<\/p>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__values\">\n<div>\n<dt>D1 RSI<\/dt>\n<dd>25.35<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>H4 RSI<\/dt>\n<dd>40.8<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__head\">\n<h4 class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__title\">MACD <span>(12, 26, 9)<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--negative\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 7l6 6 4-4 8 8\"\/><path d=\"M15 17h6v-6\"\/><\/svg>Bearish momentum<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-macd\">\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__legend\" role=\"list\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__key\"><\/span>MACD<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__key fxch-forecast-macd__key--signal\"><\/span>Signal<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__key fxch-forecast-macd__key--hist\"><\/span>Histogram + \/ \u2212<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__plot\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__zero\" aria-hidden=\"true\">0<\/span><svg viewBox=\"0 0 300 120\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" aria-label=\"D1 MACD over the last 30 sessions. The MACD line at -0.009011 is below its signal line at -0.007282, with the histogram at -0.00173.\"><line class=\"is-zero\" x1=\"0\" x2=\"300\" y1=\"60\" y2=\"60\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"1.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"11.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"2\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"21.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"4.1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"31.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"5.6\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"41.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"5\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"51.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"5.1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"61.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"4.7\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"71.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"4.4\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"81.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"3.7\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"91.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"4.1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"101.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"4.9\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"111.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"7.1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"121.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"8.5\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"131.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"12.1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"141.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"13.4\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"151.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"13.1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"161.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"13.2\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"171.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"13.1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"181.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"14.9\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"191.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"15.3\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"201.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"14.2\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"211.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"13.4\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"221.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"13.1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"231.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"12.6\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"241.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"14.7\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"251.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"14.6\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"261.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"14.7\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"271.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"12.2\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg\" x=\"281.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"12.1\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect class=\"is-neg is-latest\" x=\"291.5\" y=\"60\" width=\"7\" height=\"10.5\" rx=\"1\"\/><polyline class=\"is-signal\" points=\"5,32.5 15,33 25,34 35,35.4 45,36.7 55,37.9 65,39.1 75,40.2 85,41.1 95,42.2 105,43.4 115,45.2 125,47.3 135,50.3 145,53.7 155,56.9 165,60.2 175,63.5 185,67.3 195,71.1 205,74.6 215,78 225,81.2 235,84.4 245,88.1 255,91.7 265,95.4 275,98.4 285,101.5 295,104.1\"\/><polyline class=\"is-macd\" points=\"5,32.9 15,35 25,38.1 35,41 45,41.7 55,43 65,43.8 75,44.5 85,44.9 95,46.3 105,48.3 115,52.3 125,55.8 135,62.4 145,67 155,70.1 165,73.4 175,76.6 185,82.2 195,86.3 205,88.8 215,91.3 225,94.4 235,97 245,102.8 255,106.3 265,110 275,110.6 285,113.6 295,114.5\"\/><\/svg><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-macd__axis\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span>30 D1 sessions ago<\/span><span>Latest<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__text\">D1 MACD remains below its signal line, with a negative histogram, reinforcing the bearish momentum state. H4 MACD is negative but its histogram is positive, creating a modest tactical tension that may delay or complicate immediate continuation without overturning the D1 thesis.<\/p>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__values\">\n<div>\n<dt>MACD<\/dt>\n<dd>-0.009011<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>Signal<\/dt>\n<dd>-0.007282<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>Histogram<\/dt>\n<dd>-0.00173<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__head\">\n<h4 class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__title\">Bollinger Bands <span>(20, 2\u03c3)<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--neutral\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M4 12h16\"\/><path d=\"M16 8l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg>Lower half<\/span><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge fxch-forecast-gauge--ticks\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Latest D1 close 1.12097 sits inside the Bollinger Bands, 14% of the way from the lower band at 1.11417 to the upper band at 1.16175.\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__pin\" style=\"--pos:25%\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__label\">Close <b>1.12097<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__track\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone fxch-forecast-gauge__zone--outside\" style=\"width:15%\"><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone\" style=\"width:35%\">Lower half<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone\" style=\"width:35%\">Upper half<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__zone fxch-forecast-gauge__zone--outside\" style=\"width:15%\"><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__ticks\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__tick\" style=\"--pos:15%\">Lower<b>1.11417<\/b><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__tick\" style=\"--pos:50%\">Middle<b>1.13796<\/b><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-gauge__tick\" style=\"--pos:85%\">Upper<b>1.16175<\/b><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__caption\">Striped ends = price outside the bands.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__text\">The D1 close at 1.12097 is below the Bollinger middle value of 1.13796 and above the lower value of 1.11417, placing price in the weaker portion of the supplied band. H4 price is below its middle value of 1.12118 and above its lower value of 1.11599, consistent with tactical pressure but not a standalone directional signal.<\/p>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__values\">\n<div>\n<dt>Position in band<\/dt>\n<dd>14%<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>Band width<\/dt>\n<dd>475.8 pips (4.18%)<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__head\">\n<h4 class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__title\">Moving averages <span>(D1)<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill fxch-forecast-pill--negative\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 7l6 6 4-4 8 8\"\/><path d=\"M15 17h6v-6\"\/><\/svg>Bearish structure<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__axis\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span>Price below average<\/span><span>Price above average<\/span><\/div>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-ma\" role=\"list\">\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__row\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__name\">50 EMA <span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__slope\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 7l6 6 4-4 8 8\"\/><path d=\"M15 17h6v-6\"\/><\/svg>falling<\/span><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__value\">1.14491<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__fill fxch-forecast-ma__fill--below\" style=\"--w:50%\"><\/span><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__dist\">Price is <b>239.4 pips below<\/b> (-2.09%)<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__row\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__name\">200 SMA <span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__slope\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3 7l6 6 4-4 8 8\"\/><path d=\"M15 17h6v-6\"\/><\/svg>falling<\/span><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__value\">1.15979<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__fill fxch-forecast-ma__fill--below\" style=\"--w:80%\"><\/span><\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-ma__dist\">Price is <b>388.2 pips below<\/b> (-3.35%)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__text\">The D1 close is below EMA20, EMA50 and SMA200, while both the EMA50 and SMA200 slopes are falling. This creates broad trend alignment with the bearish thesis. H4 also trades below its EMA20 and EMA50, adding tactical confirmation, although the weekly conclusion remains controlled by D1.<\/p>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__values\">\n<div>\n<dt>D1 close<\/dt>\n<dd>1.12097<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>50 EMA<\/dt>\n<dd>1.14491<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>200 SMA<\/dt>\n<dd>1.15979<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator fxch-forecast-indicator--wide\">\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__head\">\n<h4 class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__title\">ATR <span>(14)<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"fxch-forecast-pill\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 10V3\"\/><path d=\"M8 7l4-4 4 4\"\/><path d=\"M12 14v7\"\/><path d=\"M8 17l4 4 4-4\"\/><\/svg>Expanding volatility<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__split\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-range\" style=\"--gutter:9ch\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Typical move size around the latest close of 1.12097. One D1 ATR is 61.7 pips, spanning 1.11480 to 1.12714. One H4 ATR is 25.2 pips, spanning 1.11845 to 1.12349.\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__close\">Close <b>1.12097<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<div><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__cap\">Typical 1-day move <b>\u00b161.7 pips<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-range__bar\" style=\"--w:1\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__lo\">1.11480<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__hi\">1.12714<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__cap\">Typical 4-hour move <b>\u00b125.2 pips<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-range__bar fxch-forecast-range__bar--h4\" style=\"--w:0.408\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__lo\">1.11845<\/span><span class=\"fxch-forecast-range__hi\">1.12349<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__caption\">One ATR either side of the latest close. A measure of move size, not a price target.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__text\">Expanding volatility describes an environment in which movement and level tests may develop more quickly. ATR therefore raises timing and range risk around the supplied technical areas, but it does not provide directional confirmation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<dl class=\"fxch-forecast-indicator__values\">\n<div>\n<dt>D1 ATR<\/dt>\n<dd>0.00617 (0.55%)<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<dt>H4 ATR<\/dt>\n<dd>0.00252 (0.22%)<\/dd>\n<\/div>\n<\/dl>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>Technical conclusion:<\/strong> The central thesis is bearish because D1 trend, moving-average structure and negative momentum align, with H4 adding tactical pressure. The strongest counterargument is the mixed D1 close sequence and the H4 MACD histogram, which indicate that immediate continuation is not fully uniform. The next supplied reference points are 1.11638 on support and 1.12758 on resistance, with 1.1282 defining the formal upper boundary for the bearish view.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/eur-usd\/technical\/\">View all live EUR\/USD oscillators, moving averages, pivot points and timeframe signals<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"levels\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>EUR\/USD Weekly Support, Resistance and Invalidation<\/h2>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-table-wrap fxch-forecast-levels\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Timeframe<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Why it matters<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>1.11638<\/td>\n<td>Primary support<\/td>\n<td>Weekly structure<\/td>\n<td>A break toward this supplied support would test whether the bearish D1 structure is extending beyond the current reference close of 1.12097.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1.12758<\/td>\n<td>Primary resistance<\/td>\n<td>Weekly structure<\/td>\n<td>The reference D1 close is below this level; recovery through it would challenge the immediate bearish structure.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1.13794<\/td>\n<td>Secondary resistance<\/td>\n<td>Weekly structure<\/td>\n<td>This is the next supplied resistance above 1.12758 and also the first permitted bullish target.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1.11854<\/td>\n<td>H4 support<\/td>\n<td>H4<\/td>\n<td>This tactical support sits below the H4 close of 1.11892 and helps frame near-term downside pressure.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1.1212<\/td>\n<td>H4 resistance<\/td>\n<td>H4<\/td>\n<td>This tactical resistance sits above the H4 close and is the first supplied H4 level that would need to be reclaimed for pressure to ease.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>These are forecast-specific market-structure levels. Formula-based Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots remain on the <a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/eur-usd\/technical\/\">Technical page<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"events\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>Economic News &amp; Events to Watch for EUR\/USD This Week<\/h2>\n<p>Selected events may increase EUR\/USD volatility. Direction depends on the released value relative to consensus and previous results.<\/p>\n<p class=\"fxch-forecast-table-hint\">Scroll table sideways for more columns \u2192<\/p>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-table-wrap fxch-forecast-table-wrap--wide\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"Key economic events table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"col\">Event<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Date and time<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Importance<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Previous<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Consensus<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"row\">Treasury Currency Report<\/th>\n<td>16 Oct 2026 (Tentative)<\/td>\n<td><span class=\"fxch-forecast-impact fxch-forecast-impact--medium\"><span class=\"fxch-forecast-impact__bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span>Medium<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\u2014<\/td>\n<td>\u2014<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>Calendar source: FXGlory economic calendar. Retrieved 11 Oct 2026 16:33 GMT+3. <a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/eur-usd\/economic-calendar\/\">View the complete EUR\/USD economic calendar<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>EUR\/USD Outlook for 11\u201317 October 2026<\/h2>\n<p>EUR\/USD enters the week with a bearish D1 structure: the reference close at 1.12097 is below the supplied resistance levels, the moving-average slopes are falling, and momentum is negative. Bearish H4 conditions reinforce the tactical side of that reading, while the mixed D1 close sequence prevents the setup from being treated as one-directional certainty.<\/p>\n<p>The principal technical decision area is between the primary support at 1.11638 and primary resistance at 1.12758. Expanding volatility may accelerate tests of either boundary, and the Treasury Currency Report at 16 Oct 2026 03:00 GMT+3 adds potential USD-related repricing risk. A completed D1 close above 1.1282 would materially weaken the bearish framework.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"risks\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>Weekly Forecast Risks and What Would Change the Outlook<\/h2>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-callout fxch-forecast-callout--risk\"><strong>Main forecast risk:<\/strong> The main risk is disagreement between the bearish D1 structure and less uniform tactical evidence, including mixed D1 closes and the positive H4 MACD histogram, with expanding volatility increasing the chance of rapid two-sided level tests.<\/div>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-risks\">\n<li><strong>Mixed D1 close sequence:<\/strong> It indicates incomplete follow-through and leaves room for consolidation even though the broader D1 trend state is bearish.<\/li>\n<li><strong>H4 momentum tension:<\/strong> H4 remains bearish, but its positive MACD histogram may delay immediate continuation or support a tactical recovery.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Expanding volatility:<\/strong> It may produce faster movement through the supplied support and resistance areas, increasing timing uncertainty without establishing direction.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Treasury Currency Report:<\/strong> The medium-impact USD event at 16 Oct 2026 03:00 GMT+3 may trigger volatility or repricing in EUR\/USD, while its result and market reaction are not supplied.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Formal weekly invalidation:<\/strong> The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 1.12820. One completed D1 close below 1.11355 confirms lower structural extension and continuation.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"faq\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>EUR\/USD Weekly Forecast FAQs<\/h2>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-faq\">\n<details class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__item\" name=\"fxch-forecast-faq\" open>\n<summary>\n<h3>Is EUR\/USD bullish or bearish this week?<\/h3>\n<\/summary>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__answer\">\n<p>The weekly bias is Bearish. D1 trend and negative momentum align with bearish H4 conditions, although mixed D1 closes and expanding volatility reduce the quality of any one-way interpretation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/details>\n<details class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__item\" name=\"fxch-forecast-faq\">\n<summary>\n<h3>What scenario would strengthen for EUR\/USD this week?<\/h3>\n<\/summary>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__answer\">\n<p>The bearish scenario becomes more relevant if D1 weakness persists around the supplied support structure and H4 remains unable to regain its resistance area. A sustained recovery toward the supplied resistance levels would instead increase the relevance of a consolidation or countertrend scenario.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/details>\n<details class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__item\" name=\"fxch-forecast-faq\">\n<summary>\n<h3>What are the key EUR\/USD support and resistance levels?<\/h3>\n<\/summary>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__answer\">\n<p>The primary support is 1.11638. The primary and secondary resistances are 1.12758 and 1.13794. The permitted bullish targets are 1.13794 and 1.14173; no bearish targets were supplied.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/details>\n<details class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__item\" name=\"fxch-forecast-faq\">\n<summary>\n<h3>What would invalidate this EUR\/USD forecast?<\/h3>\n<\/summary>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-faq__answer\">\n<p>The bearish weekly thesis is formally invalidated by one completed D1 close above 1.12820.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/details>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"methodology\" class=\"fxch-forecast-section\">\n<h2>Methodology, Data and Sources<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-source-list\">\n<li><strong>Price-data source:<\/strong> FXGlory price feed (EURUSD)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Live quote timestamp:<\/strong> 23 Oct 2026 20:25 GMT+3<\/li>\n<li><strong>Weekly analysis timestamp:<\/strong> 11 October 2026<\/li>\n<li><strong>Chart timestamp:<\/strong> 16 October 2026 (redrawn daily)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Daily check:<\/strong> Every day at 04:00 GMT+3: the latest completed D1 close is checked against the invalidation levels and the chart is redrawn.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Technical snapshot timestamp:<\/strong> 11 October 2026<\/li>\n<li><strong>Calendar-data source:<\/strong> FXGlory economic calendar<\/li>\n<li><strong>Calendar retrieval timestamp:<\/strong> 11 Oct 2026 16:33 GMT+3<\/li>\n<li><strong>Candle convention:<\/strong> FXGlory D1 and H4 candles; D1 candle dates are evaluated in UTC and invalidation uses completed D1 closes only.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Indicator settings:<\/strong> D1 RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2), EMA(50), SMA(200), ATR(14); H4 RSI\/MACD\/Bollinger\/EMA\/ATR.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Level-selection method:<\/strong> Weekly D1 support\/resistance levels are structural market levels. Formal invalidation uses a hard 1.00\u00d7 D1 ATR(14) minimum anchor distance plus a 0.10\u00d7 D1 ATR(14) outward buffer; H4 levels are tactical only.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Weekly forecast method:<\/strong> D1 controls the weekly thesis; H4 supplies tactical confirmation\/warning only.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div><strong>Primary and supporting sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"fxch-forecast-source-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/eur-usd\/historical-data\/\">Historical EUR\/USD price data<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/eur-usd\/technical\/\">Live EUR\/USD technical indicators<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/eur-usd\/economic-calendar\/\">EUR\/USD economic calendar<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fxch-forecast-callout fxch-forecast-callout--neutral\"><strong>Timestamp policy:<\/strong> the live quote and the D1 chart update automatically during the week. The completed D1 reference close, indicator snapshot and authored conclusions remain tied to the completed D1 candle used for authoring unless the article receives a genuine substantive update.<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<footer class=\"fxch-forecast-footer-note\">\n<p><strong>Disclaimer:<\/strong> This EUR\/USD analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a personalized recommendation, an offer to trade or a guarantee of future performance. Forecasts are uncertain, market conditions can change rapidly and leveraged trading can result in substantial losses.<\/p>\n<p>Verify the latest price and consider your circumstances and risk tolerance before making financial decisions.<\/p>\n<\/footer>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EUR\/USD has a bearish weekly bias as D1 structure and negative momentum align, while bearish H4 conditions reinforce pressure but mixed D1 closes and expanding volatility preserve two-sided risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":43287,"template":"","market_instrument":[45],"market_content_type":[44],"class_list":["post-54585","market_article","type-market_article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_instrument-eur-usd","market_content_type-forecast"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_article\/54585","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/market_article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_article\/54585\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/43287"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=54585"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"market_instrument","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_instrument?post=54585"},{"taxonomy":"market_content_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_content_type?post=54585"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}