{"id":38107,"date":"2025-04-18T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-17T20:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/forex-market\/market\/market\/analysis\/usd-jpy-forecast-2025-04-18\/"},"modified":"2025-04-18T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-17T20:00:00","slug":"usd-jpy-forecast-2025-04-18","status":"publish","type":"market_article","link":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/forex-market\/currency-pairs\/usd-jpy\/forecast\/usd-jpy-forecast-2025-04-18\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY Forecast \u2014 18 April 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Time Zone: GMT +3<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Fundamental Analysis:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s USDJPY fundamental analysis centres on two potential catalysts. In Tokyo, traders await Japan\u2019s Core CPI, the inflation yardstick that omits fresh\u2011food prices; a hotter\u2011than\u2011forecast print usually lifts the yen as bets on tighter Bank of Japan policy return. Stateside, attention turns to FOMC member Mary Daly\u2019s remarks at UC Berkeley. Any hint of a more hawkish stance could bolster the dollar. The push\u2011and\u2011pull between an inflation\u2011sensitive JPY and a policy\u2011driven USD sets the stage for elevated volatility on the USD-JPY H4 chart in today\u2019s session.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Price Action<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>From a USD JPY price\u2011action perspective, the pair has respected a well\u2011defined descending channel since late March, carving out successive lower highs and lower lows. Price is grinding along the channel\u2019s mid\u2011line after slipping beneath the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement at 143.75 and tagging a fresh swing low near 141.90. Candles remain predominantly bearish, with short\u2011lived upticks capped by the channel\u2019s upper boundary\u2014evidence that sellers still dominate intraday order flow.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Key Technical Indicators<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Moving Averages:<\/strong> The 9\u2011period EMA (blue) stays beneath the 17\u2011period EMA (orange), reinforcing the prevailing bearish trend; every attempt to reclaim the faster average has stalled, turning these MAs into dynamic resistance.<\/p>\n<p><strong>RSI (14):<\/strong> Hovering around 40, the RSI reflects lingering downside momentum without dipping into oversold terrain, implying room for another leg lower before bullish exhaustion signals emerge.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Stochastic (5,3,3):<\/strong> The oscillator has rolled over from the 70\u2011zone and is crossing south of its signal line near 45, hinting that the latest corrective bounce is losing steam.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Support and Resistance<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Support:<\/strong> Support sits around the confluence of the channel base and the 100 % Fibonacci level at 140.85\u2011141.00.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Resistance:<\/strong> Resistance is found at 143.75\u2014the 61.8 % retracement\u2014followed by 145.65 at the 50 % level and the channel\u2019s upper trend\u2011line.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion and Consideration<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Current USD\/JPY H4 technical analysis underscores a dominant down\u2011trend, validated by converging indicators and persistent supply at moving\u2011average resistance. Unless Core CPI disappoints or Daly strikes an unexpectedly dovish tone, rallies toward 143.75 may tempt sellers targeting 141.00 and potentially 140.00. Intraday traders should track channel boundaries closely, while swing participants may wait for a confirmed break of either 143.75 or 140.85 before committing fresh positions in this USDJPY trading strategy.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Disclaimer:<\/strong> The analysis provided for USD\/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"524\" src=\"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/USDJPY-H4-Technical-And-Fundamental-Analysis-for-04.18.2025-1024x524.webp\" alt=\"USDJPY-H4-Technical-And-Fundamental-Analysis-for-04.18.2025\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Time Zone: GMT +3 Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4) Fundamental  [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":27005,"template":"","market_instrument":[72],"market_content_type":[44],"class_list":["post-38107","market_article","type-market_article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_instrument-usd-jpy","market_content_type-forecast"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_article\/38107","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/market_article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_article\/38107\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38107"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"market_instrument","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_instrument?post=38107"},{"taxonomy":"market_content_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxglory.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_content_type?post=38107"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}